tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post4035650319098834458..comments2023-08-06T05:23:18.212-07:00Comments on It Might Be Dangerous... You Go First: On Trading PeavyPaul DePodestahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02560758061177027738noreply@blogger.comBlogger96125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-10163399632517081982008-11-18T14:54:00.000-08:002008-11-18T14:54:00.000-08:00paul - as i'm reading all the hot stove chatter wi...paul - as i'm reading all the hot stove chatter with the braves being in then the braves are out then the cubs are the focus now the cubs are out i have to wonder... why are you guys so intent on trading him?<BR/><BR/>are you past the point of no return at this point?<BR/><BR/>why not cut your losses on the effort to move him and allow the season to play out? <BR/><BR/>if peavy pitches well and you dont contend his value rises.. if he pitches well and you dont contend his value still rises..<BR/><BR/>the only thing i can really think of (without doing an in depth #s analysis) is that you're worried about his health impacting his trade value to potentially zip if he gets hurt. <BR/><BR/>what's the deal?EricInBostonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00403644983701429316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-72792387004893752392008-11-06T11:52:00.000-08:002008-11-06T11:52:00.000-08:00I am a huge Padres fan, who lives in SD and watch ...I am a huge Padres fan, who lives in SD and watch the Padres as frequently as possible, and I completely agree with trading Peavey. Whatever the case for keeping Peavey, the Padres are better off trading him. They are a mid-market team with very little talent and a budget that demands that the team be able to build youth talent into everyday players and not sign overpriced free agents. Obviously trading your best pitcher is never the optimum idea but in the situation the Padres are in it make complete sense. The Padres need to focus on building the middle of the field. All of these spots have become question marks and need to be addressed with serious fixes and not little bandages that have occurred over the past 3 years. (Edmonds, Iguchi Barrett all come to mind as bandages put over major problems.) Khalil Greene is great defensively but has become a complete liability on offense. Even before hurting himself he was over-matched by the lower quality pitchers and it always seemed as if he never knew what pitch to look for and hit. Padres need to look into trading Greene as well. This team needs to be built to play well in Petco, which means a team that doesn't play station to station baseball and need to be able to hit the ball into gaps and run as well as have players who can go get the ball defensively. Changing the dimensions of Petco will not make this team better. Management needs to realize that they need to put out a team that fits their ballpark and the style of play needed to SUCCEED in the NL West. If this means trading one of the best pitchers in the NL to solidify the future then I am all for it because I'm tired of seeing a Below Average team pretending that they are a contender.Genius Insanityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08876261746272843612noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-83777399676549776332008-10-28T11:01:00.000-07:002008-10-28T11:01:00.000-07:00No, Hector, that rotation doesn't get them anywher...No, Hector, that rotation doesn't get them anywhere near .500, not unless the offense is the 1929 Yankees. We had that rotation this year, except with Peavy instead of one of the stiffs. <BR/><BR/>Estes was unlucky with his locomotion. He was very lucky as a pitcher. Nobody succeeds for long when they walk as many as they strike out and they don't strike people out in the first place. Nobody. Estes is 35 and hasn't even been average since 2001. He hasn't been good since 1997. <BR/><BR/>As for Rickey Henderson in 1989: The A's swept the Giants in the WS. They beat the Blue Jays 4-1 to get there. Henderson's a great player, Top 25 all time, maybe, and he was great in those playoff games. But Oakland pretty much clobbered their opposition. It's far more likely that they'd have won even with a slow-footed LF, because they were a lot better than the competition. <BR/><BR/>The Yankees and Red Sox have both employed a sabremetric approach to players, prioritizing OBP and power over defense and speed. They have plenty of WS rings. The playoffs are about having a good team (which the front office can control) and playing well in a short series (which they can't).Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03146510414061056532noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-33565132165262443552008-10-27T15:04:00.000-07:002008-10-27T15:04:00.000-07:00Different subject, I heard watching the World Seri...Different subject, I heard watching the World Series that during the season Grant Balfour was sent to Triple A and cleared waivers. How did the Padres let that guy slip past themAmy Cimahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06451934589114027143noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-69186957602470558682008-10-26T01:24:00.000-07:002008-10-26T01:24:00.000-07:00new topic: a member (bipmyroberts, great name) at ...new topic: a member (bipmyroberts, great name) at the UT's Padres forum posted pictures from Petco today that suggest that the team is once again planning to move the fences in or at least considering it, perhaps even quite dramatically. Is there any truth to this, or are we misinterpreting the situation?<BR/><BR/>Personally, I think attempting to have a fair park rather than an extreme pitcher's park is a noble idea, though I'm not sure whether or not it would benefit the Padres in the long run. Would love to hear your thoughts on the subject.Nathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06644845503101593318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-12862293752060870762008-10-25T21:52:00.000-07:002008-10-25T21:52:00.000-07:00In a recent UT article, Jim Callis of Baseball Ame...In a recent UT article, Jim Callis of Baseball America stated that the Padres farm system had "slipped a little". <BR/>Do you agree with his assessment? If yes, why has the system regressed? If no, why do you disagree?field39https://www.blogger.com/profile/00214591750675764581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-3840237525368297962008-10-24T23:55:00.000-07:002008-10-24T23:55:00.000-07:00I agree with Ryan completely. The reason why the D...I agree with Ryan completely. The reason why the DBacks gave up six prospects is because Haren was under contract at such a bargain rate. Peavy, while signed at or below current value compared to this season's FA's, certainly wouldn't qualify as a "bargain" compared to Haren using any system. <BR/><BR/>Peavy's numbers certainly will not be the same away from Petco, and is certainly more of a health risk than Haren was at this point last season. I'm not saying that the Braves shouldn't trade for Peavy, just Hanson, Schafer, and one of Escobar or Johnson is too much. Greene has negative trade value, so please stop Padres fans trying to pawn him off on the Braves. <BR/><BR/>A trade of Charlie Morton or Kris Medlen, Jordan Schafer, and either Escobar or Kelly Johnson is a trade that is more realistic for the Padres and is one that would be beneficial to both teams. The Pads would get a young arm to put in the rotation, the center fielder of the future and a middle infield piece that would thrive hitting line drives in the gaps at Petco.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09364172372367314182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-34787889476690835092008-10-24T09:03:00.000-07:002008-10-24T09:03:00.000-07:00Paul, I just want to think you again for starting ...Paul, I just want to think you again for starting this blog. It offers incredible insight into a baseball front office, and we all appreciate it.<BR/><BR/>Now onto Peavy, I won't pretend that you are going to go into detail on any offers or moves, and you shouldn't, but I was thinking that if the Braves are a fit, and they do seem to be a fit to most of us outsiders, wouldn't the Minnesota Twins make a great 3rd partner for both teams? It seems to me that the Twins have what both the Padres and the Braves need most, young talented OF's and young talented pitchers. And yet they lack what the Padres and Braves HAVE most of; young talented infielders, specifically on the left side of the infield. That just seems like there could be a really good fit for all 3 teams. Just throwing it out there.<BR/><BR/>Also, how tough is it in reality to get 3-way deals done in your experience as a general rule? It's obviously tough for those of us not in a major league front office to understand that. Thanks again for all the insight.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10988190181851507856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-20599588325443163142008-10-24T07:03:00.000-07:002008-10-24T07:03:00.000-07:00Aren't you saying by trading Peavy, who you have f...Aren't you saying by trading Peavy, who you have for 5 more years, that you don't feel that you can contend in the next 5 without filling some big holes, and the only way to fill those holes is to use the biggest chip you have?<BR/><BR/>Certainly, if you saw your self play-off bound soon you would need Peavy to get out of the first round?LoveMyTeam.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12784846662964525958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-58631542951263024982008-10-23T19:01:00.000-07:002008-10-23T19:01:00.000-07:00Paul,I was reading that Luis Mateo -the domican ki...Paul,<BR/><BR/>I was reading that Luis Mateo -the domican kid that the Giants signed- has his contract voided because of bone chips in the elbow.<BR/><BR/>According to Dr. Lewis Yocum, he saw no need for surgery in Mateo’s elbow or shoulder and felt that aggressive rehab would be the preferred course of action.<BR/><BR/>Why not take a stab at this kid at a reduced price and see what comes out of it?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12971477979547986260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-88707879504475138342008-10-23T09:02:00.000-07:002008-10-23T09:02:00.000-07:00Paul,Any chance you can get us an update on Prior?...Paul,<BR/><BR/>Any chance you can get us an update on Prior?<BR/><BR/>Is he actually throwing off a mound already? If so, isn't that different then past years?<BR/><BR/>A front 3 of a healthy Prior, CY and Peavy puts you guys in good position for 85 wins doesn't it? <BR/><BR/>I guess I'm just not understanding why the organization feels the need to throw away 2009 and alienate even their most supportive season ticket holders when the division......frankly sucks.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16986476337188257876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-50616673575781883232008-10-22T21:58:00.000-07:002008-10-22T21:58:00.000-07:00as a Dodger fan, if the Dodgers trade Kemp, Kersha...as a Dodger fan, if the Dodgers trade Kemp, Kershaw, McDonald, and DeJesus for ONLY Peavy, I will no longer be a fan. <BR/><BR/>This isn't fantasy baseball.13 Stoplosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12271477215225166355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-71266848357433392112008-10-22T18:13:00.000-07:002008-10-22T18:13:00.000-07:00Ryan,Very good point, although I'm sure you'd conc...Ryan,<BR/><BR/>Very good point, although I'm sure you'd concede not every team weighs the need of a player based solely on dollars versus production. For a team like the Marlins or Twins, they might require a certain dollar to production ratio when equating their value to a player, whereas a team like the Red Sox or Yankees might not care to the same degree.<BR/><BR/>Plus, saved money doesn't always mean there is available production you can buy with money. Now, with the type of dollars difference we're talking about here, that is probably not the case here. <BR/><BR/>One other thing that might come into play in terms of a player's value into an individual game. Now, I know there is no tried and true formula for increased success in the playoffs (at least as far as I know) but I would have to believe the strength of a pitcher does play a factor as the sample sizes get smaller. Since pitchers are the players on the field that most impact the outcome of a single game, the values of pitchers might change in the playoffs. I have no proof to back this up obviously, but I don't buy into the whole "crapshoot" theory of the playoffs. Certainly there is no certified formula for guaranteed success, but I do believe there are certain types of players that might increase the chances of playoff success. I don't know what types of players those might be, but pitchers could very well be the most important factor since they are the biggest variables from game to game.Wazzel Sport's Humorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16563529746900314345noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-31372207545298112892008-10-22T16:37:00.000-07:002008-10-22T16:37:00.000-07:00Baek was starting consistently for the first time ...Baek was starting consistently for the first time in the majors and he showed enough promise. I am not into number crunching, but I liked what I saw in his velocity and specially in September.<BR/><BR/>Estes was so unlucky this year, but he is finally healthy, he should have a nice year. He was not used to being healthy at the beginning of the season, so he broke his finger. All kidding aside, I feel this a very good change of pace guy that will have a productive year.<BR/><BR/>CY has what it takes to be a staff ace, he just needs to put a whole season together, and I believe he will, and then perhaps he will get traded at peak value.<BR/><BR/>Prior has the talent, lets hope he is healthy, so that the team can build around him. Black, Balsley and Akerfelds will protect him the way Dusty Baker never did.<BR/><BR/>The open spot could go to Geer, Leblanc, etc.<BR/><BR/>What do you think, that the Padres are moving Peavy in order to sign Sabathia? this will be another retooling year and hopefully they are ready to win in 2010. <BR/><BR/>I am not saying they are the best rotation, but they will be competitive enough to have the team around .500 and give you enough payroll flexibility to add if they are exceeding expectations.<BR/><BR/>The only thing I do not like about the approach the Front office takes is that is not always about the stats. After all, how many rings has this system earned? the 1989 A's? <BR/><BR/>Even so, if you discount Rickey Henderson's ability to create havoc on the basepaths, you do not have the ring.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12971477979547986260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-54254878863503291372008-10-22T11:00:00.000-07:002008-10-22T11:00:00.000-07:00stubblefield:Yes, the lineup struggled at times. B...stubblefield:<BR/><BR/>Yes, the lineup struggled at times. But as hard as it is for some people to believe, the offense outperformed the pitchers - by a lot. We had one above-average starter, and he only threw 160 innings. We had two average starters, one of whom was traded, the other who missed half the year. The rest of the starters, and almost the entire bullpen, were crap. CRAP, actually, in all capitals. <BR/><BR/>I do agree on the need to build a strong minor league system, not because it's morally right or anything, but because of how the owner has set the budget. Unfortunately, four years into the New Era, the progress in that regard is still iffy.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03146510414061056532noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-121658143245771282008-10-21T21:01:00.000-07:002008-10-21T21:01:00.000-07:00Alex,If you look at Haren and Peavy's PECOTAs befo...Alex,<BR/><BR/>If you look at Haren and Peavy's PECOTAs before this year, Haren's MORP for 2008-2010 totals to a little over $45M. If you look at Peavy's MORP 2009-2013 is roughly $82M. Now PECOTA is just one projection system and MORP is far from perfect, but I'm just using it as an example of how the two players were projected BEFORE this season. So, as of the trade Haren was projected to be worth $45M and had a $16M contract over the next three years. Peavy (as of last years PECOTAs is projected to be worth $82M and has a $78M contract over the next 5 years.Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10206573228455542540noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-81845904369167311482008-10-21T18:05:00.000-07:002008-10-21T18:05:00.000-07:00Hector, that's one of the worst rotations in the m...Hector, that's one of the worst rotations in the major leagues. How do people fall in love with 4 decent starts from Estes, when he had more luck than anyone deserves, and ignore 8 previous bad years?<BR/><BR/>That staff would have exactly one above-average pitcher, CY, and he's a major health risk. Everyone else is either a health risk, sucks, or both.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03146510414061056532noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-87383881785678621642008-10-21T13:49:00.000-07:002008-10-21T13:49:00.000-07:00"fastness,If that's all the Padres got for Jake Pe..."fastness,<BR/><BR/>If that's all the Padres got for Jake Peavy, I think some of these Padres fans might be justified in their revolt. I think the bounty (if Peavy is traded at all) will be much higher. It has to be an offer you can't refuse."<BR/><BR/>Come on, man. You get Tony Gwynn Jr and the grittiest catcher in history. Plus a SS coming off an .821 season. That's more than fair for one of the best pitchers today.<BR/><BR/>(I thought my facetiousness was obvious by including the Kendall throw-in. I guess not.)Fastnesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04250511345868226554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-90661417670143324832008-10-21T12:19:00.000-07:002008-10-21T12:19:00.000-07:00Hector, that is an AWFUL rotation...Hector, that is an AWFUL rotation...Cpt Top Offhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11369569938997918229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-49275640369183754352008-10-21T11:21:00.000-07:002008-10-21T11:21:00.000-07:00Paul, As a lifetime Padres fan, I completely under...Paul, <BR/><BR/>As a lifetime Padres fan, I completely understand the logic of trading Jake to improve the quality of the team. Take for example the Baltimore Orioles who last offseason traded Tejada and Bedard for 10 prospects. Granted Bedard is not Peavy and Tejada went from kinda old to officially older over the course of the year. They received 10 prospects, maybe a couple were Major League ready, but the upside on Adam Jones and some of the arms they received was enough to justify it. I like the example the Twins set last year, though you didn't mention that the Twins received young prospects who also contributed at the Major League level immediately, one being a young center fielder, of which we could also use one. Part of being a life long Padres fan is seeing the big picture and how to build an organization to win this year or win for years to come. I'd much rather have a lineup of consistently strong performers than have to count on my 2,3 & 4 hitters to generate all my offense. And if anybody watched any games, that's what was happening. Thank you for the communication provided to us the fans, it's greatly appreciated. As a true fan, watching the rest of the division developing young talent, we need to start now or we will be chasing the D-backs, Rockies and Giants for many years to come.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10855700598563175834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-79703471249620554002008-10-21T08:58:00.000-07:002008-10-21T08:58:00.000-07:00Paul,This is extremely of the subject, but are the...Paul,<BR/><BR/>This is extremely of the subject, but are the Padres considering bringing back Prior? <BR/>It would be nice if the Padres get a return on that investment, and it should be wise not to let him hit free agency. He should be ready to go for spring training right?<BR/><BR/>I would not mind a rotation of YOung, Baek, Estes, Prior and someone else.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12971477979547986260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-15167732940663077512008-10-20T23:02:00.000-07:002008-10-20T23:02:00.000-07:00Paul, I want to add that I appreciate that you hav...Paul, I want to add that I appreciate that you have given us this forum which enables us to vent to someone in the organization. I know you are doing your best in an uncomfortable situation.<BR/><BR/><I>Man needs difficulties; they are necessary for health.</I><BR/>-Carl Jung<BR/><BR/><I>Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.</I><BR/>- Thomas A. Edisonrenee6542https://www.blogger.com/profile/16707717890809278445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-71170744023536846232008-10-20T22:53:00.000-07:002008-10-20T22:53:00.000-07:00Paul, you said: There were discussions with Jake a...Paul, you said: <I>There were discussions with Jake and his representative before engaging in any dialogue with any other clubs. Ultimately, Jake can obviously decline any deal.</I><BR/><BR/>After what became public about the trade Brian Giles nixed to the Red Sox, what you said seems to be shorthand for, 'Jake, we are slashing payroll to the bone and can't afford to add any bonafide major league players to the roster, especially since you take up so much of the payroll. Therefore, we are in rebuilding mode and are going to suck for a while. Do you want out?' Jake said, 'In that case, I'll consider it.'<BR/><BR/>Peavy wants to be here and took millions less to be here. What I would like to know is why was an extension negotiated just 10 months ago, including a no-trade?<BR/><BR/>To me, there's 3 possibilities why the Padres want to trade away Peavy so soon after his new deal:<BR/> <BR/>1) The Padres have this method of giving a player a NTC if he agrees to the famous San Diego discount. Because this discounted contract raises his value, they can get more in a trade for that player. When they want to cash that value in, they then go about making that player unhappy so they are willing to waive their NTC.<BR/><BR/>2) There are ownership issues which may force the lowering of payroll no matter what the consequences to the roster. This means the Padres will be willing to take the best offer for Peavy, even if it isn't an outstanding offer.<BR/><BR/>3) The Padres are so flabbergasted by a near-100 loss season, that they are making a radical change in direction. Instead of adding on to a team with an existing staff ace, they feel they won't be able to compete for a couple of years. Therefore they want to cash Peavy in now and start a full rebuild.<BR/><BR/>I am sincerely hoping that the situation is not #1, even if it seems like thats the way the Padres have been doing business, beginning with Nevin. Players talk and it is surely getting around by now that it isn't worth it to take the SD discount including a NTC because the Padres will finesse you into a trade anyway.<BR/><BR/>Personally, I think a lot of the situation is #2, which is disheartening. It means that we have to sell Peavy one way or another.<BR/><BR/>However, its probably a combination of #2 and #3. We don't have the money to add the players we need to go WITH Peavy and therefore the Padres are willing to trade away arguably the best pitcher our organization has ever produced.<BR/><BR/>It's sad. With a payroll similar to 2008's spent more wisely and a little better luck with injuries I think we could compete considering our division is not that strong. We have some other trade pieces in Kouzmanoff, Greene, and Bell which are easier to replace. Even Gonzales is easier to replace as we have Blanks in the minors. <BR/><BR/>If this wasn't about money, it would be too soon to give up on the next couple of years by trading away our staff ace/losing streak stopper.renee6542https://www.blogger.com/profile/16707717890809278445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-17899089713233308212008-10-20T16:13:00.000-07:002008-10-20T16:13:00.000-07:00padman42,I certainly hope it happens sooner rather...padman42,<BR/><BR/>I certainly hope it happens sooner rather than later. Allowing us to trade picks would certainly not force us to trade picks. Added flexibility is generally welcome.<BR/><BR/>As far as when it might happen, I would guess that there will be a number of potential draft changes discussed in the next round of collective bargaining (still a few years away).Paul DePodestahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02560758061177027738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3031950757212286354.post-28202996897642409082008-10-20T13:35:00.000-07:002008-10-20T13:35:00.000-07:00Mr Depodesta, Now that the Peavy trade has been b...Mr Depodesta,<BR/> Now that the Peavy trade has been beaten to death till a deal actually happens (although something was published in I believe the Boston Herald about Peavy going to the Red Sox for Lowrie, Elsbury, Masterson, and a prospect). I was wondering if you could answer a point that you touched on.<BR/> You mentioned that draft picks can not be traded (which I knew about), but do you see a time in the near future where this would not be the case? I figure that with some teams with high picks not wanting to pick a player based on a price tag (cough Padres in 04' (not now though)), do you think baseball will allow a trade? I'm sure teams would be more than willing to trade up or down in a draft, not to mention it would make draft day more exciting than it already is.Padman42https://www.blogger.com/profile/16331881538439559579noreply@blogger.com