Ok, this is your chance. Well, not really, but I am interested in hearing your opinions.
Today we saw a blockbuster transaction with CC Sabathia moving to the Brewers. I'm not looking for your take on the trade (sorry) - these are actually two of the best GM's in the game making bold, yet solid, moves for their respective organizations. It should be a win-win, which is what you'd expect with these types of players and organizations involved. What I'm curious about is this: what would you do this month if you were the GM of the Padres?
As I've written before, this year has been frustrating on two fronts: 1) we've played well below our expectations, and 2) we were a timely hit away yesterday from being just seven games out of an underachieving division. Given the state of our current team, our organization as a whole, and the entire division, what would you do?
I've posted a poll to the right that will run for the next three days - no dillydallying or waiting to see how things unfold. I'd like your vote in the poll and your comments below this posting. This should be interesting...
100 comments:
I'd love to say "Sell" out of frustration, but I'm not sure that the current market is one in which the Padres could get much for their players.
Surely theres some tiny-ballpark east-coast team that could make great use of Khalil, and Greg Maddux will always have interested parties (though it pains me to suggest trading him), but what about beyond that? Are they moves that would significantly improve the team or just frustration firings? As much as a fire sale might be cathartic, I just don't have that knowledge of what that market is like for some of the Padres players.
And, short of a miraculous turn around, I don't see this as a team that is worth buying for.
Ugh, does that mean I'm about to vote "Stay Pat" ?
If they play like a 97 win team the rest of the way, the Padres will still end up with only 79 wins. Even in a terrible division like the NL West has become this year, there's little chance that gets the job done. The Padres ought to sell, whatever that might mean.
Sell. Blow the team up. Best case scenario for this team is playing 500 baseball (granted that may get you to the playoffs). Every player on the team is available, save Peavy, Gonzo and Headley. The Padres need to start looking to the future, and they may as well start now. Why wait?
I would definitely sell if I was the Padres GM. The Wild Card is obviously well out of reach and the division is pretty much out of reach too. Even if by some miracle the Padres did win the division I do not see them advancing far in the playoffs especially with CC in Milwaukee.
Obviously there are some young players on the Padres that you can build around and they should not be sold off. There are however veterans on the team that other team would be interested in. Some would include Giles, Wolf, Bell, and Maddux (if he waived his no trade clause). Some decent minor leaguers should be able to be obtained for the veterans.
I would give the young guys a chance to play the rest of the season and see what happens next year. The Padres seem to have a good amount of young talent and another year may be all they need to take it to the next level.
It's time to sell. I love the Padres, but if we can make smart moves to bring in future talent for some of our soon-to-be free agents, that's a big win. Not much more exciting than home grown talent. If we a cannot get decent return, then let's ride out this season and grab whatever compensatory picks we can and continue with the trend to build from within. Trying to win the division at any future expense is silly.
The Padres should seel. There is some value in Maddux and Wolf. I'm sure the Cubs would love to have Maddux back to combat the CC trade to their division rival and I think the Phillies would not mind taking Wolf back to secure their hold on the NL East. Other players that teams could be interested in are Khalil Greene (If willing to deal with your old team the Dodgers, some awesome prospects could be had.) and Kevin Kouzmanoff should bring interest.
The padres need to realize that although they are 7 games back, they still would need to leap frog 4 other teams. The wild card is pretty much out of reach so the NL West is the only ticket to the play offs. At least one of the other teams that the padres are chasing is bound to get hot. The Dodgers have been showing some life lately and the D'backs are not as bad as they have been playing making this a real uphill battle for the Padres. The Padres are also more than a big trade or 2 away from competing. The pieces they need do not seem to be available on the market. And even if they do somehow make it to the play-offs, I dont think they will last long as the teams from the central and east look to be a lot better than any team from the west.
Time to cash in those chips. Be happy that wolf has been healthy as long as he has and trade those players for some prospects that will help in the upcoming years as the division does look to get tougher and tougher with all these young teams. I came into this season thinking that the Padres post season hopes rested on Mark Prior and unfortunately that experiment did not go as plan.
This team as currently constructed doesn't look like a contender even in the weak NL West. That said, there's not a great deal of sense in just selling for the sake of it...I think i'd most likely try to shift Wolf, Giles and Maddux if possible and try to get some pieces for next year.
The other option of course is to buy 'small' and target a couple of proven FA to be vets that could trigger a turnaround, knowing that they could pull in some decent draft picks at the end of the year. Essentially you trade 'B' prospects for draft picks...and a shot at the division. Tough call though.
I would love for the team to start selling. Wholesale changes are needed:
1. Heath Bell to the Brewers for Alcides Escobar and other prospects. They need the bullpen and the Padres need a SS
2. Khalil Greene to the Red Sox
3. After a couple of good starts, goodbye to Randy Wolf...
4. Brian Giles has produced in the 3 hole, but if you are going to rebuild. Besides, with his salary going up due to the trade, it is highly likely that he could come back as a free agent in 2009
5. If Greg Maddux waives his no trade clause, why not?
6. Once Tadahito Iguchi comes back from his injury, the same. The Padres cannot offer him arbitration due to his contract, so might as well get something instead of nothing.
7. Tony Clark could bring a prospect as well.
Also, by doing this. The team gets closer to drafting Stephen Strasburg in 2009.
Also, lets not forget that the division is within striking distance. And if Young, Estes and Bard come back and produce like club expected, this season is not over yet.
It is a difficult decision, but for the long term of the team, I would start the wholesale changes.
In my opinion this is the time to reload as much as possible if there is a reasonable market for some current Padres. I realize the team is "only" 9 games out of first, but
(1)it would still take an extaordinary set of circumstances for the team to jump 4 spots in the division and
(2)even if they were to defy all odds, this is clearly not a team built to succeed in the playoffs. It would remind one of 2005, when they were completely outclassed in the postseason.
I'm not sure if anyone would want to take Giles, given his contract status and health. The compensation pick(s) might represent more value than what we'd get in return. However, Wolf and Maddux would surely be useful to teams searching for a Plan B after missing out on the Sabathia sweepstakes. I think the team should seriously entertain all offers.
I'd also try to gauge other teams' interest in Kouz. I think the Pads would be better served, long-term, with Headley manning 3B and bringing in a quality bat to play LF. That would also be a way to improve defensively at two positions.
I think, in terms of talent at or near the Major League level the Padres are running 4th in the West, ahead of only the Giants. While the others are fighting to take control of the losers' bracket why not try to get a leg up on the division for 09' and beyond?
That being said, if we choose to stay pat I hope I am very wrong.
The best move for now would be to feel out the market. See what the other teams in the division are doing. If the Dodgers or Diamondbacks make a move, it would be silly to follow suit and chase them from the current position in the standings. This would actually be a sign to rebuild, with both likely giving up above average prospects, poorly positioning them for coming years. Perhaps move Giles or Wolf, maybe even Maddux back to the Dodgers or Cubs if he's willing. Maybe even Heath Bell if someone overpays, which the very well might; Heath is a great reliever. Hey Doug Melvin, your bullpen might need a little help while your at it.
However if the Dodgers and DBacks both stand pat, why not move some middle of road prospects to a team in "fire sale" mode. For example, why not move a average prospect for a Paul Byrd or Adam Dunn type player or take a risk on a Freddy Garcia, Oliver Perez or bat to back up Adrian? Maybe they don't beat out the DBacks (pretty unlikely) but they build some momentum for next year and show that they are a first class organization once again. You could also try to make a big move to position themselves for next season. The Blue Jays want to get rid of Burnett. Maybe Paul could convince JP to do a deal centered around Khalil Greene (perhaps the shortstop they are looking for, lots of HRs usually and great D). If Seattle moves Erik Bedard why not at least up the ante for the contenders and take a shot, I'd give Chase up for him. Imagine going into next season w/ Peavy, CRYoung & Bedard BEFORE free agency, now we're talking.
I have never understood why 2009 rebuilding can't start now. People seem to act on whim during the trade deadline (see: whoever trades for Brain Fuentes), take advantage, for the price in the offseason is usually high, as there are few teams who've given up hope. Call the Reds, Astros, Braves, Rangers, Indians, Rockies, Mariners and Blue Jays. If Seattle eats salary why not give Sexson or Beltre a change of scenery. See if these teams are devaluing some underachievers. Who knows, if Peavy gets hot, Chris Young comes back and a bat is added, maybe some magic could happen, kharma should be on our side after last year in Milwaukee. In fact we're in Milwaukee the first weekend of September, how sweet would a little four game sweep be.
Just some thoughts.
Although the D-Backs aren't that far ahead, I think you'd have to sell. Being nine games back and playing under .400 ball more than half was through the season, anything but selling wouldn't make sense. Randy Wolf has to go. You could probably get something for Kouzmanoff and Giles as well. If Maddux wants to go that should be accommodated as well.
Continue to take notice of how the rest of the succesful teams in the division are going to win. Sell guys like Giles, Maddux, Greene, Hoffman. Make all the callups neccesary.
I'd love to see a Brian Giles trade all over again. Trade for someone still in his prime who has years left on a contract at a need position...
Trade Kouzmanoff +++ (Latos, Huffman, & Inman - pretty much any 3 they ask for) for Berkman. Move Berkman back to LF and Headley to 3B...
I'm not a Padres fan (sorry), nor very knowledgeable of the NL in particular. I voted "Sell" because that's what I would want from my team if they were approaching 20 games below .500 at this point of the season.
I was a bit surprised to see so many agreed with me. But I figure that every team has players that could A) help out another team and B) bring back a solid return.
Sell....
I would like to see the 2009 club, built around the philolosphy that I keep hearing about (A combinaiton of on base and slugging skills).
The revolving door in the outfield is getting old. Please, give us three outfielders to start the season, all of whom can get on base.
I don't care how many bases the Padres steal, but I am weary of watching the opposition steal with impunity.
In order to get where you need to go, you are going to need to trade for prospects, get significent production from and farm, and bring in a quality free agent.
No problem, right?
First, as a Padre fan, I feel secure knowing the organization will make the right moves. I don't know that fans of too many other clubs feel the same.
I'd sell, with an eye toward what Oakland has done this season: a wining record in a rebuilding year. Namely, by replacing some vets with Beavers, we might just stay in the mix. Not a recipe for wining the division, but not the worst odds either. I think it beats the gamble of really going for it that others here have described.
Among names that have come up for trading, I'd hang on to: Bell, Kouz, Giles, and probably Maddux. That doesn't leave a lot: Greene, Wolf, Iguchi, Clark, Meredith... But those could fetch some value where they'd fill a need, and boost our farm even further. A rich farm could be just the thing to make us strong buyers this time next year.
Sell! Get what prospects you can for Maddux, Wolf and/or Giles! Let's get 'em next year!
Something many people dont realize and what jumps out at me is that the Padres are have some good young talent: Gonzalez brothers, Kouz, Headley, Peavy, Young. I would trade the veterans to get good young talent in return but I would not simply give them away. I think the Padres need to get young players that are close to Major League ready in order to explaining selling.
Get premiom prospects for Kouzamanoff (who will never duplpicate last year's number, sell while people still think he can. Headley will do much much better offensively and at 3rd). Keep Greene for now only, as no immediate viable other option (unless Kouz trade brings one).
Anyone over 25 shoud be liquidated ASAP for prospects except Gonzo, Peavy, Young & Luke Carlin (like many of us, I just love this guy depiste no hitting yet)and maybe Heath Bell, unless you get an offer you just cant pass.
sell, sell, sell. You have committed the unpardonable sin of putting out a boring product. This is ultimately about competing for the attention of the paying public and a team that as constructed leaves many cold when it comes to forking over their dollars. An infusion of young players would at least give us reason to pay attention until the winning comes
I'm in the sell category also, shop Maddux, Tomko and Wolf to the fools in the NL Central. If the Cardinals would take one of them for one of their glut of outfielders (Ankiel, Ludwick, Duncan, Shumaker, Barton, Mather) that could be a start. Also I might try and work something for the Aviles kid with the Royals he can really go and they don't seem to ever make a good trade for themselves so they can only be good for you.
Well I think in principle the Padres should be sellers -- after all, even with heroic play the Padres are unlikely to break .500, and even if they somehow squeak into the playoffs, they're not likely to last.
However, I would not sell just to sell. If the offers for the Padres' veterans aren't sufficient, then perhaps stand pat and collect the draft picks.
oh, and possibly trade Adrian Gonzalez. I'd expect a Teixeira haul.
Isn't the track record of the Marlins proof enough that fire sales do work?
Even on that note, as much as I have always disliked Khalil's approach at the plate we cannot trade him or Kouz at this juncture. Selling low is always a poor plan, wait it out until the numbers go up, even if it takes until the offseason.
The first parts to go have to be the bullpen pieces. Strong, proven bullpen guys are a luxury for winning and big market teams.
Sell, it's worth giving up the slim chance of making the playoffs with an even slimmer chance of going anywhere for a future improvement of the team.
The key consideration is who would replace the traded player.
I'm going with the assumption that no trade will bring a ML-ready player, if one did it could alter my analysis regarding Giles/Kouz/Greene.
Maddux & Wolf - Love Mad Dog and would love to keep him around, but he's probably the most valuable of those trade-worthy. SP (and always RP) is an area where we could probably restock over the summer, be it from the system or free agency.
Giles & Kouz - Both of these guys would open up a corner outfield spot. But Venable is the only guy in the system that could fill it and you can't count on him to be an improvement over either and he would likely be a noticeable decline. Unless Hairston really turns it around in the second half, it's unlikely he would be an improvement either.
Greene - Used to be the guy's biggest backer, but I think his inability to hit the breaking ball away is being exploited by every pitcher in the league. Unfortunately, any possible replacements in the system are a couple years away at least. It's unlikely anything could be found in free agency, and with his poor performance this year, the small chance he's able to turn it around next year is probably more valuable than anything the Padres could get for him.
Heath Bell - He's our best reliever without a close second, no point in giving that up.
Headley and Hundley are obviously off-limits as rookies. Trading Peavy, Gonzalez, or CY is just inane and nobody else on the roster is likely to bring much value, but if they can, trade away.
First of all, I want to say that I have 100% confidence in KT. If there's something out there that makes sense for this team, I'm sure he would do it. But I don't really think any of the pending free agents (Maddux, Wolf, Iguchi) would bring back anything more than fringe prospects at this point. If the Padres trade any of them, they would just be salary dumps. If they can get one good prospect in return, I'd be happy.
Regardless, I'd like to see them unloaded so we could get an early look at someone like Wade LeBlanc, Will Inman, or Steve Garrison.
On the trade front, this is what I'd do. Trade Kouzmanoff for some more young pitching (you can never have enough, and then let Hairston play everyday in the outfield and see what kind of numbers he can put up. I'd project something close to .255-25-70 if he started every game for the rest of the season. Maybe he proves he can be an everyday player for next season, capable of a 30+ HR season. Maybe he proves he's just a very good fourth outfielder. But that's what these types of seasons are for.
I really don't think there's anything else this club can do. Sure, I'd like to see them get a speedy, young CF or a power-hitting corner outfielder but the Padres just don't have the resources to make this happen unless they trade AGON or Peavy. And that would be crazy to unload one of the best young hitters in baseball or one of the best young pitchers while they are in their prime.
Lastly, if they can get a good return for Brian Giles, I say go for it. With the way Will Venable is hitting the ball in AAA, it might be worth giving him 150-200 at bats this season in LF, with Hairston in CF, and Gerut in RF. Those three would cover some ground.
This is great -- I think everyone who reads your blog loves the idea of this sort of thing.
I would let teams know that we are willing to sell for the right price. Trading high-priced vets like Maddux and Giles would free-up $20 mln (according to ESPN). As much as Trevor means to SD, I also would think hard about trading him and his $7.5 mln for the right prospect. Those three guys alone represent over 1/3 of our payroll. That alone would give us some significant ammo to reload over the next couple of years.
If we could get a couple of other team's top organizational prospects for these guys, I think it would make a lot of sense for the Padres long-term success. A team like Florida said to Boston "hey... will give you Beckett, but it is going to cost you your top prospect -- Hanley Ramirez." You could say it worked out well for both teams, but I would personally rather have the future (and $439k 2008 payroll) of Ramirez. Even Hanley's long-term deal looks like great value compared to other shortstops. Similarly, I think the Twins went after a similar 5-Tool+ guy in Carlos Gomez in the Johan Santana deal.
Finally, as bad as this sounds, the thought of winning the Strasburg lottery is appealing. There is no question that he is special -- and a hometown boy to boot! A one-two punch of Peavy Strasburg could easily be the toughest in baseball -- and that is what can win divisions...and playoff games... and a World Series.
In my mind, the only untouchables on the Padres: are Adrian, Jake, and Chase. If we could get some other teams' top prospects by moving some veteran guys to playoff contenders, I think it would not have a big impact on this year's results and would make the Padres a much stronger organization in the long-run.
sell ... trade giles, wolf, and maddux.
Sell. And after that final game in Phoenix, it's easy for me to figure out where to start: Greene. As we saw yesterday, he's absolute murder with men in scoring position. He absolutely HAD to get Kouz across, and he couldn't. I know he's hitting better at home than on the road, but I'm sure there are plenty of teams out there who would give up the goods for a young slick fielding shortstop who still has upside.
I'd love to see what Luis Rodriguez can do everyday at this level.
And once you guys settle on ditching this season, it's easy to see your next moves. Wolf and Maddux can go. Giles too, I suppose. Then go out and get a stud in the bullpen who can set up Bell. And a young, athletic everyday outfielder.
I mean, seriously: Does anyone really think trading Greeney, Maddux and Wolf would make this team so much worse? The core of the team--the reason Padres fans are still hopeful--is still there: Gonzalez, Peavy, Young, Bell, Headley.
Judging from what I've read in the papers--and hearing my friends bitch--fans already think this is a lost season. So make it so. And come back stronger in '09.
sell everyone except agon, headley and peavy, if fair deals can be had. i agree with the poster who said this team is boring (more like "slow, old and boring"). get some young athletic guys who are at least interesting to watch and have potential. i know, the hard part is getting athletic guys who can hit.
while we're at it, let's ditch the "not playing up to potential" excuse. it's tired from having been rolled out every year, when the has-been/never-will-be lineup fails to produce yet again.
I really don't understand all the trade giles sentiment. As an east coast pads fan I go by the "tivo" rule--that is, if the player consistently has bad/frustrating at bats then I have a desire to fast forward. I fast forward Khalil's at bats all the time, and Barrett's and definitely P-mac's, but I would never ever think of fast forwarding Giles. His eye is really uncanny and he always seems to have good at bats. thats a subjective analysis but I'm sure all your numbers indicate just how effective he is at seeing pitches, getting on base, and making productive outs. KG doesn't do any of that, and no matter how exciting the occasional home run is for the fan, is doesn't ameliorate the frustration with his lack of plate discipline. Its just not fun to watch. In a very capitalistic sense, besides all the numbers, his at bats are just not a good product. And I hear the Ch 4 guys stick up for greene all the time, but their rationale is weak. I, as a fan, would much rather see a "defensive specialist" with an OBP above 300 than to see KG swing at another 0-2 slider with a guy on third. So I'm hoping Giles sticks around, if only because I hope his approach rubs off on some of the younger kids, like how Maddux has obviously affected Peavy.
I am also just really disappointed in some of Bud Black's decisions with the pitching staff. I think he needs to be "sold" too. Last year I think one of the main reasons the bullpen was so effective was that everybody had clear roles, and BB went to people only within their roles. Starters go 6 strong, that's their role, then Brocail for the 7th, the Bell then Hoffy. This year he hasn't found a 7th inning guy he can trust, and so I think he has tried, with disastrous results, to "trust" the starters to go 7. Very few games are getting to that Bell and Hoffy rhythm. Pitchers that can succeed outside of a defined role seem few and far between to me. We have Peavy and Bell, but the rest clearly need the structure of knowing what is expected of them and when. That hasn't happened this year and I think it's mainly BB's fault.
That's my rant. Sell greenie, and sell Wolf just because he is our best chance at getting more than a mid level prospect. But this team is better than its record.
Sell. And then sell some more. This team is slow, and unathletic. I believe that speed has been severly undervalued, and therefore presents a "Moneyball" opportunity to gather the kind of athletes that are being undervalued in the market.
The daily benefitrs that speed provides are difficult to quantify. But they're real, and they are EXCITING!
Go Sycuan!
I've waited a long time for this (licking my chops). This is my thinking moving forward as GM.
1. Bring in the fences in right. I would build the team with some lefty power and that would allow us to put a weaker fielder in right. Additionally it would give Adrian (and Chase) a shot to put up some nice HR numbers.
2. Roster: We are selling NOW! Let the fans know we are building and your going to see some young hungry guys out there. A lot of teams are in limbo, we are going to sell now while people are posturing. The Brewers threw the gauntlet down, it's time for us to take advantage of the market while there are more buyers than sellers. With that said.
1B - Adrian (keep), we are set for years. local guy, great in the community in Sd and Mexico. He's the kind of guy you want to build a statue of.
2B - Tadahito, I would (trade) him ASAP. I'm hoping he will be ready to come back before the July 31st date.
- Edgar (keep), I see him as a stop gap at 2B; however, I think Antonelli will need another year at Portland. I would like to see Edgar here for a couple years as a blum type utility guy. Reminds me of Loretta
SS - Greene, I would (trade) him as soon as I can get a little value. If you wait till next year he is a rental. His refusal to sign the four year deal was enough for me. I would try to send him to a team near his family if possible, that way it's a win win.
3B - Kooz (keep) has played very solid for a second year player.
LF - Chase (keep) will grow and so will his D. Keeper
CF - Gerut, (trade) he's serviceable this year. I don't see him having much trade value. However if we could move him, I would be happy watching Venable or Ambres see how they can handle some playing time.
RF - Giles (Trade). We need to look past 2009. Giles value is high at this point and I would move him. I love the guy, but lets send him to a winner this year and get some value in return.
OF - Harriston (Keep). He's a great 4th outfielder, amazing he's 2nd in HR's this year while platooning. He plays hard, always runs balls out.
- McAnulty (Trade). I would have some pity on Paul and move him to an AL team. He has tried his best, but this outfield isn't suited for him. He needs a shot at 1B, DH or in a smaller outfield.
C - Barrett / Bard (Trade) We need guys that can throw. They are both good guys, but we need more. If I could move either or both of them I would. I'd let Hundley take his knocks up here for the rest of the year.
Bench - Tony Clark (Trade). He has served us well. Lets reward him. I think an NL team would be a better fit, since we pinch run for him with a pitcher every time out. I don't think his value would be very high at the DH spot. Teams always need a great pinch hitter.
SP - Peavy, Young, Banks (Keep) Wolf (Trade). He's going to command more on the open market than we are willing to pay next year as well as ask for a multi year deal. He's costing us each time he take the mound right now. Unless we can lock him up for a couple years now, then we move him.
- Maddux (Keep? Trade?) I would just ask Greg; What are you plans for next year. We would like to sign him thru 2009. If he isn't open to that, I would ask if we could move him. At this point I think he would welcome the move. Keeping us as an option if he decides to play in 09
Bullpen - Hensley, Bell, Corey (Keep)
- Meredith (Trade) He is a situational guy, not a 7th inning guy. If he is not being used as such, then he needs to be moved.
- Hoffman (Keep? Trade?) Like Maddux, I would ask Hoffy if he would like a chance to win a title. Teams like the Rays and the Brewers could use someone like Hoffy. I don't think he's done at all, if he would like to stay than so be it. I would ask Bud not to insert him unless it's a save situation though.
3. What I want in a trade?
I want prospects.
I'm looking for speed and defense at the SS and CF position.
I want a Catcher A or AA level to add depth and be prepared if Hundley doesn't pan out.
Of course I'm looking for pitching; starters and bullpen to add depth to our minor leagues.
4. Going into 2009 we will have some money to invest into a established player or two. After a season like 08 the fan base will need to see us make an aggressive move. We need to start scoring runs
We need:
CF (Speed and Defense) Kenny Lofton type player. In the 08 trades I would have targeted a ML ready guy to trade for.
Corner OF (I want Pop) Adam Dunn
SS (Speed and Defense) A guy that is going to hit a ton of doubles, play solid D and have 180 -200 hits. Furcal would be great, but out of our budget. Also would have been addressed in 08 trades.
Bullpen help - Defined guys, long relief, situational guys and a 7th inning guy, a set up guy and a closer. We need a real power arm out of the pen.
5. 09 Lineup
CF
Edgar (2b)
Gonzalez (1b)
Headley (LF)
Dunn (RF)
Kooz (3B)
Hundley (C)
SS
Peavy
6. Rotation
Peavy
Young
Banks
Estes
Maddux or Minor Leaguer
Thanks for the open Forum Paul D,
Steve
So, the Padres have been unlucky in my opinion and should bounce back to a degree, but expected W-L records based on current season stats are flawed themselves because they assume that player performance will remain constant throughout the year. None of us expect (or at least I don’t) Dan Uggla to keep up his pace, so making calculations assuming Dan Uggla is gong to hit .289/.375/.620 from here on out would be inherently flawed.
Essentially, I like to evaluate a team’s future within a season based on what I expect in the future from player’s and how many wins that might translate to in relation to their opposition. Players like Adrian Gonzalez, Brian Giles, Jody Gerut, Scott Hairston, Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf (although I’d say of this list he has the best chance to improve) and most of the bullpen have performed at expected rates. These players should more or less perform at their 2008 rates for the rest of the year. Players that have underperformed are Chris Young (who has tons of injury flags), Kevin Kouzmanoff, Khalil Greene (big time), Josh Bard (injuries again), Trevor Hoffman (with a 5+ K/BB I’m not buying the “He’s finally done” argument at all), and Iguchi. I expect nearly all of these guys to have much stronger second halves, especially from Kouz, Hoffman, and Greene. Khalil Greene should’ve been primed for a big year and the fact that he’s had the start he has is really disappointing. Nonetheless I expect him to be one of the most productive shortstops in the second half of the season. The team hasn’t really had any overachievers in my opinion (well, Edgar Gonzalez and perhaps Banks, but while I think he’ll do worse from here on out, he should still be pretty solid) so I really can only see the Pads getting better from here on out. Chase Headley can have a major impact on the offense depending on how his hitting can progress this year. I ultimately see Headley as a .300/.375/.500 type player, but probably not for a few more seasons. It’s hard to gauge exactly how well he will do in his rookie year (off to a slow start) but I think he can end up around .270/.325/.450 for the year, which would be a major boost to the offense.
With that in mind, I think a GM needs to look at 3 situations before heading into the trade deadline: how well his team perform by standing pat, how much they can improve via trade, and what kind of deals might be out there if they decide to be sellers. After calculating this information, they need to compare that to the teams they are in contention with and weigh the pros and cons of each scenario.
If the Padres stand pat and don’t sell any pieces I definitely see them having a very strong finish, but probably the best case being around 45-27, which even then lands the Pads at 80-82. Considering that I view the current Diamondbacks as at least an 86 win team (42-31 from here on out) so that would still put the Pads 6 games out. If the D-backs make any sort of additions via trade we could easily be looking at an 87-88 win team soundly. On top of that, the Dodgers could easily be a similar caliber team to the D-backs, so it is two teams you’d have to hop over.
For the Pads to make up that kind of ground via trade we are looking at trades that would need to add about 6-7 wins to the team, which is extremely hard to pull off in any scenario. The Padres farm system isn’t incredibly deep, so any trades to improve the team in the short term would really need to be for minimal cost prospect wise, as the Padres really can’t afford to mortgage the future on such a slim playoff chance. Also, there are really only a handful of positions the Pads could legitimately upgrade (CF, 2B, and Catcher depending on Bard’s health). I could see the Pads maybe acquiring a Ray Durham type upgrade at 2B for simply taking on salary, but not much else in terms of a real impact move. There just isn’t enough out there to legitimately upgrade the Pads to an 86+ win team.
So with those things in mind it seems like the most logical thing for the Padres to do is become sellers. The Padres really do have enough core talent to contend in 2009, so they should really only focus on dealing players that can’t help them beyond this year (unless of course the deal makes a lot of sense). With that in mind I have a few ideas for what the Padres should try and do at the deadline as sellers
1) Greg Maddux is the Padres most attractive trade piece as he is successful, proven, playoff tested, and is a free agent next year (who may not even earn a comp pick since retirement is an option). The key with him is finding teams he’d waive his no trade clause for. The Cubs strike me as a team that could use some starting pitching and Maddux has had success in Chicago already. Jason Marquis just doesn’t cut in my opinion and the Cubs should be looking to upgrade his spot greatly. The trade I’d be looking to make if I’m Towers is RHP Greg Maddux, OF Jody Gerut (OF insurance), cash and RHP Mike DeMark for LHP Rich Hill or OF Felix Pie. Both Pie and Hill are high upside talents that have seen their value plummet in the Cubs organization. Hill has struggled ever since his questionable demotion and I think he would thrive with a chance of scenery. 4 years of Rich Hill would be an absolute steal for Greg Maddux, but this all depends just how much Hendry has soured on Hill this year. The same pretty much goes for Pie, who would be a nice fit for the Pads in CF for the next 5 seasons. I’m not sure how realistic it is for the Cubs to spend this much for 3 months of Maddux, but they are making a World Series run and they no doubt would love to have Maddux in the 3 spot of their rotation.
2) Greg Maddux to the Braves is another scenario I could see Maddux waiving his no trade clause for. Atlanta is the team of his career and he would be beloved there (plus the media would eat up Glavine and Maddux back together again). They should be a nice second half team and could really use one more solid Starter with some pen help. I see a few possibilities here: RHP Greg Maddux, OF Brian Giles, and RHP Mike Adams for OF Jeff Francouer and SS Brent Lillibridge. It is unlikely that Francouer will be going anywhere, but he is having a down year and with the recent controversy between him and the team maybe he will be tradable for the right price. This is a big haul for ATL in terms of talent, but on the flip side San Diego also gets some nice young players who wouldn’t even be possibilities if they weren’t having down years. If Francouer was off the table, I’d offer Brian Giles, cash and Greg Maddux for OF Brandon Jones, Lillibridge, and RHP Kris Medlin. Jones and Lillibridge are having down years, but are both thought of very highly and could help the Padres for many years. Giles presents the Braves with a major offensive upgrade in LF (where Giles could be one of the best defenders in the league) and his ability to work counts and get on base will be very valuable in front of Chipper, Teixeira, and McCann.
3) Randy Wolf can’t be forgotten about and he doesn’t have the luxury of a no trade clause so selecting his team could be much easier. Detroit is a team looking to make a serious run in the second half and they will need pitching do so. The Padres can offer them pitching, and offer it at a premium price. I’d try and package Wolf and Mike Adams for either OF Matt Joyce or OF Brent Clevlen. Neither have fantastic track records, but both are putting up big years this year in AAA. I’d definitely prefer Joyce, but Clevlen would be a decent addition as well. They both have some decent upside in the OF and could really be nice adds for the Pads.
4) OF Brian Giles, 3 million dollars, and RHP Mike Adams to Athletics for OF Travis Buck. It is unlikely for Beane to ever sell a player (especially one as young as Buck) this low, but Giles is a player that would be a huge upgrade for them offensively. Adams is obviously a nice cheap addition to their pen. I don’t realistically see this happening, but if the A’s wanted to make a serious playoff push, this would be the move to do it.
I could probably come up with a million more scenarios, but this has gone on way too long. Essentially, after thinking long and hard it seems like becoming sellers is the best idea of all because the odds of the Padres winning the division are extremely slim and not worth gambling on. Trading Maddux would become priority number 1 since above all other players he might not have any compensation in the off-season. The key is the Padres must only be willing to sell at high prices because if they do hang on to their players they should be able to have a winning team for the final 72 games. There is a value to winning games in a season in terms of appeasing the fan base (and thus potential revenue). These trades are all at peak high prices for what the Pads would be selling, but things are negotiable and you have to aim high to succeed. It is better to aim high and fall short than settle for mediocrity. The Padres don’t have to trade anyone and with CC gone and dealt, there aren’t any legitimate options on the market any better than Maddux (unless Harang is dealt).
The guys I wouldn't deal for sure that have been discussed here are Kouzmanoff and Greene. No point in dealing them here, not at their current values
Paul,
Offering up the keys to the big rig this time of year is certainly a good way to ensure widepread participation, no?
Echoing earlier commentary, the Pads position in the cellar means they have to be classified as "sellers", but their tradeable assets are such that moves do not have to be made for moves sake. That is to say, any potential trades we make will be auxiliary trades that help the club incrementally, not organizational-rocking blockbusters that define the future. For instance, the Indians HAD to trade Sabathia (perhaps not for what they received), but losing a player of his caliber for draft compensation would be a travesty (see Soriano, Alfonso with Washington.) The Padres on the block may bring a nice return, but draft compensation would be comparable, so if need be we can keep them and play out the string.
That being said, if I'm the man, I let it be known that Wolf, Maddux, Giles, Clark, and Iguchi are available and sift through the returns. The first three players mentioned have all seen better days, but all three would seem to have value for a contender as a supplemental piece. In addition, all are considered good character guys, valued by clubs in a playoff run. Understanding that none of these guys, by themselves, are going to bring back premium ML-ready talent in today's economic landscape, I would seek to further deepen the system with talent, not necessarily looking for need. In essence, this season is lost for the purposes of contending, so immediate returns for the big league club are not paramount. If beggars can be choosers, I would look for athletic bats in the OF and at SS, or, as always, premium arms.
The remarkable turnaround of the Rays has made them buyers for the first time, and I would be stalking Andrew Friedman like a jilted girlfriend. With their wealth of minor league talent, I would be trying to interest them in our veterans for the stretch run, in order to pry a prospect or two from them. While their top-tier talent doesn't figure to be available for what we would be offering, I would target OF Fernando Perez specifically, whose speed and on-base abilities fit the organizations' philosophy and could potentially plug our hole in CF. I would try to broaden the deal with them as much as possible, and if they would include an arm, even better.
I've noticed that some have suggested dealing Kouzmanoff and Greene, and while either would be available for the right price, I still see them as part of the future. Kouzmanoff is still young, cheap, and has the potential to be a mid-lineup mainstay. If he puts together a second helf like last year, the results will be there. While I am as disappointed with Greenie's performance as anybody, the sad truth is he is the only viable everyday SS in the organization, with none on the immediate horizon. And in case you haven't noticed, clubs aren't exactly GIVING young, athletic shortstops who can hit away. Cleveland couldn't get Milwaukee to part with Alcides Escobar and they were dealing Sabathia. So despite his maddening inconsistency, if I were GM Greene wouldn't be going anywhere, not unless I was bowled over by an offer. Same goes with Kouz. Others have suggested trading Heath Bell, who is also part of the core for me, and the possible closer next year. Still cheap and under Padre control, he only goes as part of a larger deal to pry premium talent from the Rays, Red Sox, or other stacked team.
Alright Paul, I'll spare you the remaining volumes rattling around in my head. Thanks again for this forum, so much fun for us dedicated Padre fans.
I'll be honest, I'm not here to play GM, I just wanted to say PLEASE PLEASE don't trade with my NY Mets. I fear any move made with a GM like Towers, I will never forgive Towers for taking my favorite player away from me, OMAR WHY, HE ROLLERBLADED OFF THOSE POUNDS JUST LIKE YOU ASKED...
Sell. Making the playoffs is unlikely at best and a misdirected goal anyway. Winning in the playoffs ought to be the goal and this team won't.
Use what trade bait we have to restock and reload.
Shop everyone except for Peavy, Hoffman, Adrian Gonzalez, and Edgar Gonzalez (who will all be your new nucleus), and formulate trades similar to how Beane and the A's trade (like the Haren trade). Maddux alone should command getting a valuable player or two for a team looking to make a playoff run this year.
If I were the GM, I'd have to look not only at whether we could compete in '08, but also in '09 and beyond. This year is already a wash as it would take a miracle to get only to 80 wins. Best case scenario, next year we are going to need a CF, 2B, #3SP, #4SP, and about half of a bullpen (assuming we resign Giles). I don't think our farm system will be able to provide replacements at these positions nor are we going to find them in free agency (there isn't a shopping cart big enough). Moreover, AZ and LA are only going to get better as more of their young talent matures and is brought up to the bigs. We should start building for 2010, which means jettisoning everyone who won't be around then and who can bring some value back to us. That means Giles, Maddux and Wolf should be gone. In Giles case, we need to find out whether he'd be type-A and whether we can get a better return in a trade. We should look into trading Khalil (the Greek god of no-walks), but his value is probably too low to make a good deal right now. Talent-laden teams (NYY, Bos, TB) are starving for bullpen arms and if we can get one of their young starters for Bell, we have to look into it like we did with Linebrink. Other than that, we don't really have too many tradeable assets (I'm not trading Peavy or Gonzo, Young has no trade value because of the injury, and we're unlikely to get better players for Kouz and Headley), so we just need to ride the storm out, sit out of the '09 FA market and save our cash for Strasbourg and the '10 FA market.
I'd love to see the Padres sell this year, provided that (obviously) the return would be worth it. Guys like Giles, Clark, Maddux, and even Iguchi or Wolf all could get a return of a piece here or there.
The way you guys draft, I'd definitely consider trying to get a package for a Type-A FA (or even maybe a Type-B), and pick up a sandwich pick or something for next year.
There are some great young pieces in place, and I'd love to see you guys make a run, but it just doesn't seem all that feasible this year.
Gotta Sell, bro.
Think of it this way:
If Dbacks and Dodgers play .500 ball from here on out, they end with 80 wins.
If the Padres play .600 ball from here on out you they end with 78 wins.
Even if you play .600 ball while they play .500 ball, they still got ya beat.
Get a head start on next year!
I think the Padres should sell but they have to be creative. They simply don't have the personnel to sell off individual parts (at least this year) and receive a "CC-type" haul. Therefore, if you were to package a deal around Wolf and Greene or Maddux and Giles (both scenarios are just examples) I would think it could net the Pads a higher level prospect or group of prospects.
Paul,
I think the time to sell on some guys is more than justified. However the timing is bad for many of them.
The obvious first move would seem Randy Wolf. I am not necessarily sold that we will be able to net more than compensation via draft picks will bring us. If I am not getting a legitimate return then I'm holding.
Maddux...he won't net more than Wolf and without having the luxury to see if he would waive his no trade clause, I am guessing it would be an uphill battle to convince him to leave (by judging from small newspaper tidbits and rumors).
It would be dumb to dump Greene at this point IMO. I was hoping we would dump him last offseason due to his consistently low OBP and overrated fielding. I figured his HR would have been worth more to another team who loves the "sexy" stats. At this point he's better suited staying a Padre. His value is simply too low.
Kouz should be moved IMO, but not until the offseason. It seems our farm has decent depth in the OF and Headley's ability is already shining. Kouz has a bad back and has never really been a patient hitter at any level. If he isn't going to hit .310 every year then his low OBP will continue to supply this lineup with frustration. Plus why shove a square piece into a round hole? Headley is a good third baseman and Kouz is a fairly valuable trade piece.
Trading Barrett and Iguchi seem unlikely now, unless through waivers in August, and trading Hairston could net us a little.
I think if the Padres want to land a haul they would have to consider moving Heath Bell. That would be a bold move and one I doubt the org would consider taking.
I don't see the Pads being very active. If I'm GM I'm working hard on the phones trying to find some matches, but I wouldn't expect much interest.
It isn't about buy or sell, it is about improving your club. I hope to see the Padres active near the deadline with some additions and subtractions.
(From a Dodger Fan) Sell, but sell for success next year. At 9.5 games out at this point, the odds of a playoff birth are remote. Of course, last year's run by the Rockies won't easily slip from people's mind, but the statistical reality is that the Padres in the post-season in 2008 is all but impossible. BP, for example, in their post-season odds projector (a 1,000,000 season monte carlo) shows the padres with a 0.13743% chance of making the playoffs.
If I am the Padres' front office, I recognize the talent I have and I look towards 2009 now. Selling the core of the rotation (all recently signed to long term contracts) is a mistake, but the Padres also have some high perceived value veterans - Maddux and Giles - and a couple of players that frankly don't walk enough to be valuable playing half their games in PETCO - Kouzmanoff and Hairston and both are blocking suitable replacements.
To me, those four players have nothing meaningful to contribute to SD other than as pieces in an acquisition. (Frankly, neither does Hoffman, but for a slew of reasons, he is just not someone the Padres could or should move).
PLEASE do not allow the futility of the NL West to cause us to pass on an opprotunity to improve our team. Baltimore (10.5 back) and Texas (8.5 back) have more reason to be optomistic about their chances to win their divisions because they are both playing over .500 baseball. Call a spade a spade...this is some of the most uninspired and boaring baseball I have ever seen. I believe we will see some improvement over the 2nd half of the season but I don't see this team playing like a champion.
The Padres as an orginazation have taken huges steps the past few years restructuring our farm system. For that I am very excited. However, we have been in the NL West race the past few years with a team that had little chance to succeed in the playoffs. This has caused us to pass on chaces to improve our team at the trading deadline. Don't pass on this one! The choice is clear! Now is time to let some of these veterans go compete for winners and give us Padre fans something to get excited about for the future.
I would sell. You have some pretty savvy people in your player development department. I wouldn't necessarily make any blockbuster trades, because I do think that guys like Peavy or Gonzalez are going to be part of the next Padres contending rosters.
The division is winnable, but I think that long-term is the way to look right now, if you can pick up some good prospects. Standing pat is fine, but if you think you can spin Maddux, Clark, Gerut et al for some quality young players, I say go for it.
As a side point, this is great! I doubt that anyone here is suggesting plausible trades that the front office hasn't already considered, but this is a great forum and a lot of goodwill is being generated by this blog. Things like this are GREAT for the game of baseball and I hope to see more of these. And kudos to the San Diego front office for allowing you to do this. I have a great deal of respect for the quality group assembled there and I wish you and the franchise nothing but the best!
Sell.
I shop everyone except Adrian, Peavy and Headley. I look towards 2010 as our next winning season and see what our farm system produces mixed with whatever we can get through trades.
The real problem is that there isn't too much value on the roster. The player that would fetch the most in a trade would be Heath Bell but you'd like to get a lot for him because he's proven to be our only quality arm in the bullpen. Plus, I gotta believe that this is Hoffman's last year so we're going to need a closer.
Realistically we'll probably be able to move Bell and a Starter or two and get a handful of decent prospects. Hopefully KT can work out another Adam Eaton type deal that nets the padres an Adrian Gonzalez type player however that's going to be pretty tough.
I have a bad feeling that we won't see a winning team until the the farm system starts to produce on a consistent basis. The good news is that it seems like the FO knows this and have vastly improved the talent on the farm. The bad news is that it could be a while before those kids contribute to a winning team in San Diego.
Stand pat.
Other then Mad Dog, the movable parts on this team have underachieved and the Padres would be selling low, i.e. even KT will be unable to get much in return. At this point, I think the compensatory picks would seem to be worth more then their collective trade value.
The better upside bet to me is let Wolf, Barrett, et al finish out the season in hopes they will rebound and the Padres will receive a higher compensatory pick.
A qualified sell. Wolf, Maddux, Giles, Clark. You're not going to get a lot for these guys, but at least you open up a space for a young guy (Inman/Garrison?) to get some major league experience in a lost season. Maybe you get a couple of minor leaguers that turn into decent bench players.
Gonzalez, Peavy, Young, Headley are untouchable.
I don't know why you would trade Heath Bell. Who's going to close next year after Trevor retires?
Same goes for Khalil. Not a middle of the order guy? Duh. Awesome defense. Having suffered through Damian Jackson, D'Angelo Jimenez et. al., keep Khalil.
Kouz-still haven't seen his upside. If we trade him now, he'll go 3 for 5 every time he faces us until the end of time.
Second base, left field, bench, bullpen, catcher. Whatever. Do what you think is best.
Trade Bard to the Reds (they need a front line catcher and someone who can work with their young pitchers).
Trade for Jeff Francoeur (he wants out of Atlanta and feels betrayed. He'd be a great RF)
Trade Kouz ONLY if there's something really good for him (Otherwise Agon-Kouz-Headley sounds good to me)
Trade Banks (buy low sell high, as part of a package)
Please send Maddux some place he can WIN A GAME (I just feel sorry for him).
Trade Wolf, Giles (rebuilding), gerut, Meredith, barrett, iguchi, clark for anything and everything you can.
Basically Mr. Depodesta, sell everything and anything you can and bring up those 'young guns' we have and lets see if they haev what it takes.
A lot of anti-Kouzmanoff people here, which is surprising. He's still young and while he hasn't been great, he had an even worse first half last year. Now, I'm not going to guarantee Kouzmanoff will repeat his 2007 second half, but that should at least be sufficient warning to not judge him too quickly. He's been mediocre this year, but if he finishes strong he has the chance to have a very productive year. He was solid last year and that was after starting off just god awful. There is still time, and I think trading Greene or Kouz would be bad a move as I stated earlier.
Well, it seems like all of you are really divided in terms of direction... :-)
I'll keep this going for a bit longer, and then I'll respond in general rather than to a bunch of specific comments.
I greatly appreciate the interest and participation.
Do NOT trade Kouz.
The usual suspects are fine,
Maddux, Wolf maybe even Kahlil Greene.
Given Towers knack for finding bullpen arms, I think they should get what they can for Heath Bell too.
Just don't trade Kouz.
We have to sell and get some value with what we have now. i am also pleasantly surprised we are FINALLY KEEPING our prospects instead of trading them for 29 year old players or for nothing. it is about time we actually try to help our ballclub out for once. WE MUST keep Edgar Gonzalez in the starting lineup and not pull a POPGUN and throw him on the bench. I am not asking the organization to massively expand their pocket book, but fukudome, gonzalez, jenkins, bradley were all out there and we swung and missed.
It seems like an odd decision to want to trade our best hitter this season (Giles) when he is still under contract next season unless the front office believes we can't compete next year either.
You can't dump Greene - as frustrating as he is, there are simply no viable replacements in the system. At least he gives high-quality defense. Don't forget, he traditionally finishes strong so when all is said and done he will probably still end up with respecable numbers (esp for a SS).
As far as Kouz, he HAS to go. He is a complete hacker who happens to "run into one" once in awhile. IMO he consistently has the worst at-bats on the team, Greene included. He is also a complete hack at 3B. How many times this year as he stumbled over his own feet?
You have to sell! Save Adrian and Headley, and maybe Peavey(I am very worried about Peavey's durability) I would entertain trades for everyone. The problem is that I only see teams being interested in the following, in order of value: Heath Bell (great value to good teams, little value to Pads b/c they're never ahead), Maddux, Wolf, Giles (although recent injuries hurt his value). These are probably the only guys you could get much for.
As for the other guys, I don't see getting much in return. For example, a lot of people on this Blog say trade Greene. I don't see you getting much for him. Who wants a SS that is a good fielder, not great, but that K's A LOT, and has a .280 OBP? What would you give for that? The Pads are probably better off keeping him and hoping he comes back next year and hits. Let's hope some trades yield a SS to challenge Greene, and a 3B to challenge Kouz.
I would vote to sell, but I don't see much value from a trade aspect.
In the end, moving some spare parts might make sense, if only to clear cash, but what we could get in return might net the Pads Joey Bagodoughnuts...
I think the big moves have to come in the offseason...having Kouz at third makes me happy, but the Pads might be better off moving him for an CF and putting Chase back at his position. KG has been an enigma and any chance we can take to get some value for him would be worth exploring.
Giles contract seems like it is friendly enough for us to swallow for '09.
Any chance we can move a guy like Blanks or Kulbaki in a package for a young-ish SS?
intentional,
The Giles point you raise is valid, although I think calling him the Pads best hitter is a stretch (cough, Adrian Gonzalez, cough). He is having a solid year right now, and if he keeps performing at this rate, it's hard to say no to his 9m option (which is essentially 6M when you factor in the buyout). That being said, Giles is 37 years old and has declining power and a declining body. There are some legitimate risks going forward with Giles (perhaps even this year he will regress to his 06-07 levels when all is said and done) and I think if the RIGHT deal is there, you can take it.
By no means is Giles a player that HAS to be traded, but if he can help net a nice young piece, you have to open to that sort of deal. I think packaging him, Maddux, a reliever (Adams or Bell because of value), and cash to ATL could be very appealing because those 3 are all big pieces the Braves are looking for to fill holes on their team. They've got some nice young pieces whose value has fallen in 08 (Lillibridge, James, and Brandon Jones) and if they are looking to take a legitimate step forward to win this division, that could be the right move for them, as well as help the Pads in 09 and beyond
Does Towers have a knack for finding bullpen arms? Or does he take pitchers who are very marginal in other ballparks, plop them down in Petco, and watch them go to work?
Value to build around for 2009:
CF Gerut
RF Giles ($6 mill difference a bargin)
LF Headly
3B Kouz
1B AGon
SP Peavy
SP Young
BP Bell
I would trade anyone for the right price. But for 2009 we need:
SP
BP
2B
SS
C
Maddux is the guy to get the most from. Not only his value but the value of 2 first round picks, because of the current FA rules. We need to fill one of the above spots for next year via the trade and get some future.
Greene has a lot of value to the right buyer. A GM that sees what Petco Park has done to one of the most fly ball hitters in MLB. Khalil is a good fielding SS with a career .500+ SLG on the road. That is valuable. He shouldn't be traded to simple be traded. He should only be traded if it is treated by the other team as getting a top SS - which he is and will be.
Wolf Not much value. he is not having a very good year.
Bell is a key part of 2009. So any trade would require a piece that fits well in 2009.
I'm another seller... Mainly because I'd like to see if KT can swing any Linebrink-esque moves to replenish our farm system even further.
First thing I'd do is look at trading Greene... There's got to still be interest in him after his 07 season. Try and get the Angels interested in him and a prospect in exchange for Willits and Aybar... I doubt it can happen, but that trade seems to work out ok... The Angels get a slugging SS that might be more comfortable in the AL in a smaller park, and we get a speedy CF and a speedy replacement SS.
Wolf and Maddux would both be traded... For what I'm not sure. I'd leave that up to KT and his wiley ways.
Clark would be gone... He might not bring in much, but with Myrow sitting in AAA I can't imagine there'd be any drop off in production at the Util 1B position.
Other options to trade... Meredith, Adams, Corey, Iguchi. I'm not as keen on the idea of trading Kouz as others seem to be... He's still only 26 and had a great 3/4 season last year... Get some guys around him, let him get comfortable and I still think we'd see a successful 3b.
RE: Trade Kouz or KG
I think Kouz is solid, but I'm all for trading him if they can get good value back. They have a capable replacement in Headley so why not try to fill another need by using Kouz as trade bait, since he's putting up decent numbers overall?
On the other hand, trading Khalil doesn't make sense at all right now. His trade value is probably as low as it's ever been. Wait and see if he rakes in the 2nd half and trade him in the off-season if they he's not in the long-term plans.
Hey Paul. I hear Myrow and Ambres are on their way to SD. What's the scoop? Maybe you can give us some more info once the moves are officially announced.
I think a move the FO needs to make now is to encourage Hoffman to retire. He should announce it soon so they can give him the send off he deserves. But they can't be held hostage by the hometown favorite like the Orioles were for all those years. They need to make it clear he can announce his own retirement and go out in style, or he can try to play another year, but it won't be as a Padre.
They also SHOULD trade Giles. Yes, he is still good, but there are too many unanswered questions about the other young OF, and not enough ABs to go around. Giles is not going to be part of the next great Padres team anyway, so knowing what McAnulty, Hairston, Gerut would do with 500 AB is more valuable than Giles getting them, even if his performance is better.
Trade Wolf and Maddux. I trust KT to get a good prospect in return. He was able to get Jason Bay for Steve Reed, so maybe we can get another valuable piece to the puzzle.
Re: AztecBill
Offering Maddux arbitration could backfire. The Braves did it in 2003, he accepted, and it cost them 14.75M. The Padres would have to be pretty sure he wanted to keep playing but wouldn't accept the offer for that to make sense.
Agree on Giles. He'd be hard to trade with his salary bump anyway, so why not pay the margin and get a .400 OBP leadoff hitter with a lot more power than most leadoff types?
I see Kouz's position as "another team" and Headley at 3b next year.
Interesting, so Myrow and Ambres have been called up. While the Padres site claims the move was to "jump start the offense" where are both going to play? If Giles goes to the DL, then Ambres will have a chance.
However, more pressing, is Myrow. Basically the team will have 3 1st baseman, 2 on the bench and the team's only allstar. Can Myrow play elsewhere?
Lastly, did the team make this move in anticipation of a trade? For example, Clark moving?
Let us also not forget with Maddux, that he might just retire after this year (meaning no compensation at all). I don't think he will because he can still perform at a high level, but who knows how Maddux feels. He's obviously old enough to walk away and I don't know if there is anything more he feels he needs to accomplish. Maybe he just wants to be with his family now
Alright Paul, I will try and keep this short as I know you are busy right now. At this point, I think you try to think about how you can make the Padres into a WS team next year. They have some key pieces, to win the title, but have fallen back this year due to some bad luck, and a few holes that can be filled easily. I look at the following potential '09 Lineup and what needs to be done to make this possible
C Josh Bard, major hole is filled by Bard being healthy again. Not a great fielder, but one of the better hitting catchers in the game
C Luck Carlin I have watched every Padres game in the past 2 months, havent seen many guys steel on Luke. Would be a great Defensive sub in the 8th inning of games and can catch during Bard's days off
C of the future:Nick Hundley, no moves to be made here
1B:Adrian Gonzalez, no need to do anything here
2B:I believe there is a hole here. being a person who reads articles from sabermetrists, the only thing I knew Edgar for was his bad fielding before this season. Id say a #2 hitter would be a huge addition. Contact hitter w/ solid on base ability, should be addressed
SS Khalil Greene, rare fielding talent. See him as a #8 hitting fielding SS
3B Chase Headley,While he seems to be improving in LF, i think Headley is the teams long term 3B
LF Sign Pat Burrell. Burrell's walk rate should remain consistent at Petco. Rumors have said Burrell is interested in playing on the West Coast, and where better to live than San Diego. Burrell also has a nice OBI% and could bat behind Gonzalez
CF Jody Gerut/Defensive Upgrade I think gerut has done a fine job batting so far this season and could be a good number 5 hitter for the team. Only reason to make a change is if management feels a defensive upgrade is needed
RF Brian Giles/Kevin Kuzmanoff/New Aquisition
If Giles could be traded for a long term solution at 2B or SP I would do it. Giles is a great leadoff guy OBP consistently over .400, but he does not belong in the #3 spot. If you accept him as a leadoff guy he is a bargain for 6 mil more next year.
I believe Kouz could play RF if Giles left.
I think Kouz should be dealt as he is expendable by Headley's presence. Giles should be held onto unless the Padres get blown away with an offer. Few guys have a higher OBP
Than the Padres have an '09 lineup of
1. Giles RF
2. Mysetery 2B who can make contact and get on base
3. Gonzalez 1B
4. Burrell LF
5. Headley RF
6. Gerut CF
7. Bard C
8. Greene SS
not many changes, definetly a playoff quality lineup
now onto pitching
Starters
1.Jake Peavy
2.Chris Young
3.Josh Banks
thanks to Banks, who is made for Petco, I think you have 3 starters on the team for next season. Chris Young's addition back in the rotation will help SD on their WS quest.
I say trade Maddux if he is not coming back next season. If he is, I would keep him. The guy pitches great at Petco and is a legend. Don't see the team getting enough value to deal him, IF he wants to be a padre again in '08.
Wolf is a bargain at his current price. He is a southpaw who has nice control, also made for Petco. If you can extend him at as imilar price I would.
Inman is a call away from the majors as well. Aquiring one more SP for depth could not hurt the Padres. There are always Banks like guys who pitch on a different level at Petco, key is finding them!
Then assuming Hoffman retires, the team has a solid closer in Heath Bell and a good LH specialist in Mededith. If deadline trades are made accumulating bullpen arms could be a nice idea as well.
I think the Padres have a great shot to have a good team that can compete for a title. With players like Hunter and Inman a year or two away from the bigs and new draftees entering the system who have ML potential, I will be looking foward to the future and do believe Burrell is the one signing that can put the team over the top
just noticed two errors
1)Headley is at 3B in the lineup
2)Burell would not be easy to sign. But i still believe he will be a good value
So basically if we were healthy we would be in contention?
That's insane? Even with great starts from our starting rotation a few more saves with Hoff gone we'd barely stand a fighting chance in the NLW.
And no move at catcher??? Few steals in the last few months??? Really, what?
Kouz is the most under appreciated player on our team though. How come everyone bags on him at 3rd? He has made as many great plays as the "defense only" Greene this year.
Kooooouuuuuzzzzz. I guarentee a HR by Kouz tonight!
What would I do if I am the Padres GM ?
First of all, I would assess the current personnel from farm system to major league ballclub and determine what is the strengths, weaknesses, and potential free agents. Given that, this is the results.
Strengths:
Farm System: Pitching (Portland: Ramos, Geer, LeBlanc, Hensley, Hampson, and Thatcher; San Antonio: Buschmann, DeHoyos, Garrison, and Inman; Lake Elsinore: Carrillo, and Culp).
Ballclub: Pitching (Maddux, Wolf, Peavy, Baek, Banks, Bell, Cameron, Adams, Corey, Hoffman, Meredith, Tomko, and Young)
Potential Free-Agents:
Maddux, Wolf, Hoffman, Giles (club option), Clark, Iguchi.
Weaknessess:
Farm System: Shortstop, Centerfield, and Closer.
Ballclub: Catcher, Outfield.
What category does the Padres fall into ? Being the GM for the day, I would say 'Sellers' and be proactive now. Here are some of the possible proposals I would put on the hot stove if I had a close relationships with the other GM's in the league:
(1) Send Maddux to Minnesota for OF Ben Revere and a player to be named later.
(2) Send Wolf and OF McAnulty to Phil for RHP Carlos Carrasco and SS Jason Donald OR INF Adrian Cardenas and OF Greg Golson.
(3) Send Giles, INF Brian Myrow, and RHP Clay Hensley to Yankees for RHP Jairo Heredia and SS Jose Pirela
(4) Send Kouzmanoff, INF Iguchi, and RHP Mike Adams to Texas for SS Elvis Andrus and OF Julio Borbon.
I would keep Trevor Hoffman and Tony Clark around for stability purposes.
Move Chase Headley to 3B, call up OF Chad Huffman to start in LF and put Scott Hairston in RF. The Farm system gets upgraded dramatically at Shortstop and next year perhaps brings up an interesting decision for the Padres to move SS Khalil Greene.
So much for being a GM for the day.
V/r,
Michael (Padres 7th Inning Stretch News - blogger)
I'd be a seller now, and other things to do down road....
Write off this year in order to be able to draft high like Mil, TB, AZ were able to do to stockpile impact bats from the draft. For some reason we aren't able to get the Brauns, Uptons, Longorias of the draft because we haven't been BAD enough since the move to Petco.
Move in the fences in '09. Why? Just because. A mental break for the home team hitters. The RF porch looks hideous anyway. Even-it out and see what happens. you could always change it back.
Trade Kouz for an athletic OF'er. Lots of teams in need of a solid if unspectacular 3B. Why not have Headley at his natural position.
Trade Wolf, Iguchi, Clark, Meredith, for prospects. I loved Meredith...2 years ago. He's just lost it but others may believe.
The most daring move...Trade Chris Young. Great guy, great teammate, but has spent too much time on the DL the last 2 years. He could get a Sabathia/Santana/Harden type return in young players. Maybe more since he's signed. A future long-term true CF must be in any deal for Young, or don't do it.
I keep Greene. He's a game changer on defense, and there are no replacements on the horizon. Just don't expect higher than 7th place hitter stats. He's not a middle of the order guy.
Giles...I could go either way. But he seems to get nicked up more and more now. So really he's gotta go. What he does real well now, doesn't help a losing team. All he does is get left stranded on base.
the most important thing. move the fences in. park doesnt fit the team philosophy of OBP and SLG because the padres cant do either at home.
trade kouz for bay or nady. move headley to 3rd.
trade for and sign or wait till next year and sign dunn. there doesnt seem to be a whole lot of interest and hes prototypical padres philosophy hitter.
trade wolf, maddux, clark, iguchi, giles, for prospects. target major league ready center fielder, pitchers and a catcher that can throw and hit. gardner of the yankees, marson phillies, wellington castillo cubs or aquire someone like olivo, laird, napoli, flores.
id like to see them try to sign oli perez and fuentes.
let hoffman go. out with the old in with the new.
could look like this:
Gardner
Egon
Bay/Nady
Agon
Dunn
Headley
Greene
Marson/other
Peavy
Young
Perez
Banks
Inman/Leblanc/maddux/other
Wolf is the only tradeable chip with value that we have at this point - tonight's start will only add leverage. Maddux, TClark, and Giles won't bring much in return. Having them around to teach the Headleys, Inmans, and other youngsters what MLB is all about is more valuable than the C level prospects they would bring.
You don't trade Kouz, Khalil, Peavy, Young, or anyone else under 30. No reason to panic and deal away established young veterans because they've struggled for a couple months. Continue to develop the young bats and arms and move Wolf if overwhelmed with an offer.
other prospects i like sean cumberland, sean henry, rashad eldridge, john jaso, hognathan arencicia, dextor fowler any thoughts people
"(1) Send Maddux to Minnesota for OF Ben Revere and a player to be named later.
(2) Send Wolf and OF McAnulty to Phil for RHP Carlos Carrasco and SS Jason Donald OR INF Adrian Cardenas and OF Greg Golson.
(3) Send Giles, INF Brian Myrow, and RHP Clay Hensley to Yankees for RHP Jairo Heredia and SS Jose Pirela
(4) Send Kouzmanoff, INF Iguchi, and RHP Mike Adams to Texas for SS Elvis Andrus and OF Julio Borbon.
"
Trade 1 would never happen. Don't see the Twins being buyers. I believe they are like the A's and letting the young guys develop. Trade 2 is a pipe dream. Carrasco would not move unless a top notch pitcher was available. Wolf is a flyball pitcher, not a great fit in PHI, as seen in the past. Id rather keep Giles at 6 mil than trade 3. 4 makes some sense, though id rather get a CF that can help us now. For those still reading, id see the Rangers doing that
and in response to the no trade for a C, Bard is solid and Carlin is a good defensive replacement. Just having Bard would help the Padres lineup a ton!!
and the Padres should focus on signing Burrell, whos stats will translate best to Petco, not Dunn
I say sell, but only for a talent upgrade. Standing pat is useless, unless the thought is everyone who has had a down season will exceed expectations next year. The guys I would consider as "on the block" are Khalil, Maddux, Wolf, Kouzmanoff, Clark and Iguchi.
That being said, here's what I'd do.
1.1) Trade Maddux, Antonelli and Gerut to the Cubs for Murton, Pie, Hill and Cedeno. Maddux gives the Cubs a solid starter for the rest of the year and Gerut can fill in at all three OF spots as needed. Antonelli becomes the Cub 2B of the future. The Padres get a nice haul of Murton (LF), Pie (CF), Cedeno (SS) and Hill, whom Balsley can work with. Pie plays in CF, while Murton acts as a reserve until Headley goes back to 3B via a Kouzmanoff deal.
1.2) DFA McAnulty to make room for Murton, Pie and Cedeno. I think PMac can be a useful part, but he doesn't seem to play well in a reserve role. Hill goes to Portland for now.
1.3) Trade Khalil and Myrow to Boston for Justin Masterson. Khalil could be an upgrade over Lugo and might thrive in Fenway. Myrow is a DH option if Ortiz' injuy lingers. The Padres get young pitching in return. Masterson takes Maddux's spot in the rotation. Cedeno takes over at SS.
2.1) Trade Kouzmanoff to Milwaukee for Dave Bush and a mid level prospect. Headley to 3B. Murton takes over in LF. Hairston is the 4th OF who gets plenty of AB's still.
2.2) Trade Wolf and Adams to Philly for Brett Myers. Myers replaces Adams in the pen for this year while they work on his mechanics. Bush takes Wolf's slot.
3) Trade Clark to the Yankees for a low level prospect. Call up Huber to act as a reserve/pinch hitter at 1B and LF.
4) Once healthy, trade Iguchi to the Mets for a low level prospect.
This sets the Padres up with a 2009 rotation of Peavy, Young, Myers, Bush and Hill, with Hensley, and Baek/Banks (whichever survives the year) as solid options beyond that. The rest of the '09 starters would be LF Murton, CF Pie, RF Giles, 3B Headley, SS Cedeno, 2B EGon, 1B AGon, C Bard. 2B and C would be FA targets in the offseason to upgrade there, with EGon moving to a utility role and Bard splitting time or being the backup catcher.
While the Padres have had four successful seasons, they have been swimming near failure. The plugs that were brought in each year to fill the bullpen, the lineup or the starters all fit the mold well. Yet, the minor league system never contributed any real success, and the foundation remained weak. The division has been terrible minus a Colorado miracle last year.
The Padres must sell because their foundation is weak and they will not win with this core. Adrian, Jake, and Khalil should be the only untouchables. I know everyone is hating Khalil, but I want them all to remember the offense that Chris Gomez put up. If Khalil were in a hitter-friendly park with a good lineup around him; he comes close to last years stats every year along with amazing defense. The offense must come from the OF. So while, the west seems weak and attainable with a good run; the core is soft. Giles, Maddux, Wolf, "Kouzmanoff", Iguchi, and anyone else with value should go to bulk up a weak system that has been tarnished by draft day disasters at the top of the board.
Stand pat. You’re *only* 9.5 games out w/ a lot of games left. You do have a good team, as it’s roughly the same core as the 89-74 team last year. If I had to pick (between buy or sell), then I’d say to selectively sell. Go out and find or create an offer that you can’t refuse. Cherry pick. And as soon as you feel you’re fully out of the race, start aggressively giving the kids/prospects a lot of playing time. You have to figure out whether or not they can play at the MLB level, so might as well be sooner rather than later.
Without reading any other comments, I voted sell and I do see the Padres have players that could interest other teams. Maddux is of course the first one that comes to mind. There may be a pinstriped team slowly getting back into the race. They beat the Rays last night and if they take a couple more, it's really interesting at the AS break. If the Padres don't have asking prices like that loon Jim Bowden, you could really build up the farm system even further with near-ready players. I'd look to sell on Maddux, Iguchi, Giles (could be a Casey-like bat for someone off the bench, nice for a playoff run). I wouldn't make anyone "untouchable", but some guys would require a ridiculous package to be dealt.
Jeeze, I fail to check the site for a few days and miss the most exciting post (for the fans) yet!
With Peavy, Adrian, and C. Young locked up for a while, the Padres are not in a position to rebuild. So I would sell with a focus on reloading to compete in the next few years.
If Maddux is willing to waive his no-trade clause, I think he is a good candidate to move. Lots of playoff teams are looking for a starter and it seems like the professor wouldn't mind being away from home for 1/2 season to make a playoff run. He could always re-sign with the Pads next year (he'd be welcomed back with open arms). As part of the deal, I would require that the receiving team agree not to offer him arbitration this offseason, so the Padres do not lose any draft picks if he wants to re-sign.
Here are a few Maddux proposals:
(1) To the Braves for Brandon Jones and Brent Lillibridge. Jones might be a bit of a tweener, in that he doesn't really have any great tool. But he's a solid all-around player. Lillibridge's stock has plummetted this year, but he plays good defense at SS and his bat could always improve. If nothing else, he can handle SS, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, and RF defensively and has very good speed. At worst, he is an excellent defensive utility player. This is probably more than the Braves want to give up, but it would be my starting request.
(2) Maddux to the Braves for Cole Rohrbough and Lillibridge. Rohrbough has a good arm, but he hasn't been great this year (he's young). The Braves have quite a few arms and might be willing to move someone as far away as Rohrbough.
(3) Maddux to the A's for Matt Murton. Only works if the A's think Gallagher needs more time in the minors. They have enough in the OF to flip Murton, who would be a cheap, league-average OF for the Padres. Probably won't happen, but worth an inquiry.
(4) Maddux to the Cubs for Felix Pie. Everyone seems down on Pie these days, but he's only 23. The Cubs definitely want to win this year and Maddux is a big upgrade over Marquis/Marshall at the back of their rotation. The Cubs could also use more depth with Harden's injury history.
(5) Maddux to the Cubs for Ronny Cedeno. Cedeno is only 25 and can handle SS.
(6) This is taking way too long and I could go on forever! Phillies, Twins, Yankees, and Dodgers could also be interested.
Wolf is very similar to Maddux in terms of trade value. Better stuff, but less reliable. I could see all the same teams matching up. Honestly, I think the trade values are close enough that it is not worth going into more detail.
Khalil Greene's value is down a bit right now, but he's really the same player he has always been. He's signed through 2009, so he is more than just a rental (unlike Maddux and Wolf). Moving away from Petco would help his power numbers, and that should be stressed with any trade partners. It won't help his K-rate or low OBP though! Since the Padres do not have an obvious replacement, a young, near-ready SS should be part of the trade.
(1) Greene to the Dodgers for Chin-Lung Hu (and more). I know, I know. Intra-division trades are exceedingly rare. It takes either a bold or a desperate GM to risk having a former player beat him in the future. But the Dodgers have a need with Furcal down, and Hu could be a decent replacement for Greene. Hu was very good with the bat, and horrible this year. But from everything I have read, he has elite defense, gap power, decent contact skills, and solid speed. Hu's value is down some, but he is a good prospect. If he can get his blurred vision cleared up, then he would be a great fit for the Pads.
(2) This is even more bold, but Greene and Maddux to the Dodgers for Hu, Jonathan Meloan, and Delwyn Young. The Dodgers could use another starter and a SS, so this fills 2 of their needs. Young is blocked all over the place for the Dodgers. He's nothing special, but he is useful and he's not a guy that the Dodgers really risk a lot by trading. He could hit .300 with 15 HR for the Pads, though that might be optimistic. Meloan was a very good relief prospect who was moved to the AAA rotation this year. He is still a really good relief prospect, and has some potential as a starter if he can improve his control. His 4.93 ERA is not impressive, but it is grossly inflated by a horribly unlukcy .363 BABIP and a horribly unlucky 63.5% runners left on base (LOB%).
(3) Cubs might have some interest, but they seem OK with Theriot. Doesn't hurt to call.
I am not going to advocate trading Kevin Kouzmanoff. I think he's a good, solid player who is in the prime of his career. That said, the Twins have an absolute black hole at 3rd base these days (I am surprised Mike Lamb has struggled so much). Kouz is still cheap, which should interest the Twins, and he would give them a great offensive boost and more lineup balance in the middle of their order. I love buying low on prospects (hence my Hu and Lillibridge recommendations above) and the Twins have quite a few guys that fit the description. But you need at least 1 very good prospect to move Kouz. The Twins do not have many elite guys, but I would start by asking for Wilson Ramos (C) and Tyler Robertson (LHP), plus a few buy-low players. Ramos and Robertson are both good prospects. Ramos is having a decent year, Robertson is having a very good year. If I can only get 1 of them, I probably go for Robertson. Good strikeout rate, Baseball America likes his stuff. After that, I would include at least 1 or 2 of the following guys and hope they can rebound from down seasons: Phillip Humber (I can still see him succeeding in the pen), Jason Pridie (can play CF with decent tools, but his plate discipline has been disasterous this year), Anthony Swarzak, Jeff Manship, and Brian Duensing (solid, but not much projection).
Don't know if something could be worked out, but the Twins could make a serious run at the White Sox if they picked up Kouz and then replaced Livan with Liriano.
I would also consider moving Brian Giles. Rays might be interested, but they prefer a RH bat. Braves might be interested. Mets would be interested. I don't know what teams he can block trades too. Maddux and Giles to the Braves could actually bring a pretty interesting return if the Braves decide they are buyers. Giles for Wilmer Flores? Maybe I should stop drinking this Kool-Aid...
After my long, rambling post, here is what I like the most.
(1) Greene to the Dodgers for Hu and Jonathan Meloan. I would push for Meloan over Delwyn Young, but might settle for Young (or a lower level pitching prospect. I start by asking for Hu, James McDonald, and Delwyn Young. McDonald would probably be a deal-breaker for an intra-division trade though.
(2) Kouz to the Twins for Tyler Robertson, Anthony Swarzak, Jason Pridie, and (hopefully) Phillip Humber. Maybe settle without Humber.
(3) Maddux and Giles to the Braves for one of 2 packages: (1) Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, and Brent Lillibridge; or (2) Gorkys Hernandez (or Jordan Schafer), Tommy Hanson, Brent Lillibridge, and another decent pitching prospect (Rohrbough or Locke?). Either package is a ton of the Braves to give up, so maybe it is asking for too much. But I could see something being worked out. One good OF prospect (Heyward, Schafer, Hernandez) and two good pitching prospect (Hanson, Rohrbough, Locke, Julio Teheran) should be the bulk of the deal. Would make the Braves a serious threat. Swap Wolf for Maddux if they prefer (or if Maddux won't waive NTC).
(4) Wolf to one of the remaining contenders for a solid prospect, hopefully for a guy with the ability to be at least a solid corner outfielder.
Your 2010 Padres!
C - Hundley/free agent
1B - Adrian
2B - Antonelli
SS - Hu or Lillibridge
3B - Headley
LF - Cedric Hunter/ Dykstra (?)
CF - Gorkys Hernandez/ Jordan Schafer/ Jason Pridie
RF - what, you expect me to do everything? One of the CF guys?
SP candidates: Peavy, Young, Inman, LeBlanc, Hanson/Rohrbough/Locke (from Braves), Josh banks, and many other possibilities.
RP: Bell, Meredith, Meloan (from Dodgers), and many other possibilities.
The infield offense and defense would be very good. The outfield defense would be very good, but might lack power. The rotation and bullpen would have plenty of options that were either under control (Peavy, Young, Bell) or cheap and young.
If the Padres could find a true power bat for one of the corner outfield spots (either via trade or free agency), then this 2010 team could potentially be outstanding. 2009 might be ugly though!
Thought you might be interested in knowing that this post has sparked a somewhat interesting debate over at "The Book" blog. Here's a link to it.
Paul,
I just discovered your blog...glad to see the computer whiz in you is still strong. You might remember me, I worked for the Dodgers while you were there, we talked several times on the phone and in person, if you don't it's ok. Just know you helped me along in my career path.
On to this post, Selling is always a hard thing to do, because it shows to fans, the year is lost and we need to think about getting better for next year. Bascially, don't bother coming til next time. And in the West that's never a good sign because on the whole its a weak division anyway. But there are many times where selling is the only viable option. And so you want to trim the fat and keep the meat of your line-up, but when you have 9 players on the DL, the wheels aren't just coming off, their broken, off, and in a burning mess on the ground.
Sell what you can for parts, and hope for some good drafts pick compensations from players walking this winter. Good Luck.
Vince
From my blog a week or so ago:
With the Padres struggling, I'd go in complete selling mode. There are plenty of veterans on this team that could get a few prospects.
First move would be to get some names floating around. Everyone knows that Greg Maddux and Randy Wolf will be available. Why not put Khalil Greene's name out there? Brian Giles would be welcome on a contender.
My only untouchable on this team would be Jake Peavy, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Chase Headley. Matt Antonelli is the second basemen of the future, so he's in the mix for the new team.
Maddux should net the team a mid-level prospect. Milwaukee is in contention and his brother is the pitching coach; I'd push for Tony Gwynn or Callix Crabbe (maybe both if a low level prospect were thrown in). Gwynn has been on the Padres radar for some time and Crabbe was on the Padres as a Rule V draftee.
Wolf wouldn't net as much. He's an innings eater with an injury history. He's going 6 or 7 innings during good outings, so there may be a team or 2 interested. I'd check with St. Louis, as they don't have a deep rotation (no matter how well they are doing right now - someone is bound to regress or get injured). They could get a guy like Nick Stavinoha or Cody Haerther for him.
If Greene were put on the market, quite a few teams would be calling. The 2 best options would be the Cubs and the Orioles - both teams looking for an upgrade at shortstop. While the Orioles system is deeper, the Cubs have a few key pieces that will help sooner. A deal of Ronny Cedeno, Sean Marshall, and a lower prospect (similar to what was offered for Brian Roberts) would probably work.
Another good bargaining chip would be Adrian Gonzalez. He's still young, but he's at the height of his game. A team like the Yankees is looking for an upgrade at first. Alan Horne and Chris Stewart could be a good deal, if another lower level prospect is sent along. Horne is probably one of the closest pitching prospects in the Yankees system to being ready and was mentioned as a player in the Johan Santana offers.
Here's the real coup for the team - trading Chris Young. Young is a good pitcher, but I believe he benefits from Petco Park more than people believe. Since he's a big name and young, they could get a couple key pieces. The Angels are looking an arm and have Kendry Morales and Brandon Wood pretty much blocked (plus, it seems like they won't give Wood a serious shot to play). The Padres could then shift Wood back to his natural shortstop.
Michael Barrett was brought back for almost the sole purpose of trading him. One team needing a veteran catcher is Florida. You could probably pry struggling reliever Taylor Tankersley for him - you'd have your closer of the future there.
The last major trading piece is Brian Giles. The Braves are looking for an outfielder - one with pop, but you could always try to spin that Giles can still hit with a little power outside of Petco (.394 slugging at home vs .484 slugging on the road). If you could get them to swap Giles for Brandon Jones, you'd have to take it.
That would leave Scott Hairston, Jody Gerut, and Tony Clark as anything with value. You could flip all 3 to contenders for lower level prospects so the system could attempt to be restocked.
Final Roster would look like:
C - Josh Bard
1B - Kendry Morales
2B - Matt Antonelli
3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff
SS - Brandon Wood
LF - Chase Headley
CF - Tony Gwynn
RF - Nick Stavinoha
B - Callix Crabbe
B - Brandon Jones
B - Paul McAnulty
B - Chris Stewart
B - Ronny Cedeno
SP - Jake Peavy
SP - Clay Hensley
SP - Josh Banks
SP - Alan Horne
SP - Sean Marshall
CL - Trevor Hoffman
RP - Heath Bell
RP - Cla Meredith
RP - Taylor Tankersley
RP - Justin Hampson
RP - Cha Seung Baek
RP - Carlos Guevara
Unfortunately, Hoffman won't go anywhere since he has 10/5 rights (10 years in the majors, 5 with his current team). The purpose here was to get younger. The team probably will finish in last, but there are now some key young player. It will also free up some payroll to go after a pitcher or 2 during free agency. 2009 has a 50/50 shot of being productive with this roster, but all the players should be at a point for 2010 that they could be up with the Diamondbacks as contenders. By 2010, some other key prospects should be ready, mainly Will Inman - he's a nice complement to Peavy.
Paul,
I think we have to sell... and I think its obvious. Regardless of how far back in the division we are, look at this team. Are they going to win a series in the playoffs against... well, anyone? No. I would consider it a miracle if they had lead in the 8th in the playoffs, let alone win a game or a series.
The point being... look to 2009. Or in all honesty, 2010. Thats when the headley/antonelli/inman/leblanc/sogard/kulbacki train should be in full steam. What does team have as far as talent at the Show and below? lets take a look.
1B- Adrian. He is entrenched for years. And you have Blanks who can back him up in a year or 2. set\
2B- edgar, who is performing wonderfully in my mind. and down the ladder, antonelli will hopefully live up. and below him, sogard is looking like the spark who can step in if matt fails. set
SS- heres where we hit trouble. khalil is a whiz with the glove, and is the ideal 8 hole hitting SS on a good club. however, the padres are not a good club. and w are shoving khalil into the six hole and expecting him to contribute. I actually hope we keep khalil because we have nobody to step in. If this club had even a decent offense, khalil could hack at those breaking balls into the dugout all year (from the 8 hole) and we'd be content as pigs in crap because he's a gold glove caliber guy, who can also moonshot it every now and then. So i'd say shop khalil, but only pull the trigger if youre blown away. like, beckett/hanram blown away.
3B- ill be the first to admit it... i like kouz. he destroyed the minors. what alot of padre fans forget is that when you look at kouz, he has more upside than any other hitter on the club, minus maybe adrian (but including headley) he'll never win a gold glove at 3rd, but he isnt butchering it either... he actually ranks pretty well defensively amongst other 3 baggers. and who do you have to replace him? exactly. nobody in portland or sanan.
OF- ok, headley is here to stay. now lets build ourselves a real outfield. The FO really blew it by letting bradley go. I mean, really. but thats water under the bridge. We have no real CFs in the high farm, until you get to hunter in LE. and he hasnt proved to have the lumber to be a ML CF. we need some real help at CF. and for gods sake, lets get some speed. any speed. when the fastest guy on your major league club is a broken tadohito iguchi, you know youre in trouble. this should be our absolute main prospect target in these trades. get willits. as for right... trade giles. he's having a good year, but he's old. the main reason we want to keep him is because he's the only padre who has a concept of the term "hitting for average" but for the type of value we can prolly get for him at this juncture, i say trade. we have some slightly interesting guys in the minors for right (mainly huffman and kulbacki) but this could be another idea for a trade target, but behind CF and SS. giles also has quite alot of money tied up in him... well, alot for a 2 tool guy (average and defense). so lets go out and get a cheaper, good defensive contact hitter, or give huffman a shot. but giles should go to a contender. for pretty good value.
C- alright... whats going on at catcher? seems like the padres have had everybody at catcher this year. im actually a big fan of bard, in a platoon sense. his bat is good when he's not run ragged, and has a tendancy for a clutch hit. barret, ditch. morton and hundley, i dont think will ever pan out offensively. I do really, really, like canham. but we wont be seeing him for prolly 2 more years. so either consign yourself to having 2 good defensive guys who suck with the bats (KG and hundley) or find a decent catcher to hold the fort for canham. this, im not that knowledgable on. But the barret/bard/morton/hundley circus has to stop
SP- ok, personally, im horrified about chris young. the guy took a fastball of the skull... and got a skull fracture. that kind of thing can kill you. something i havent seen talked about yet is will CY be the same guy when you put him back on a mound with live fire? i hope so... for everyone's sake. So right now i see 3 of our 5 spots set, for quite awhile. 1-peavy, 2-CY,and 5. 5 being the roundabout of AAAA talent who are great when they first come up until they get "figured out" and properly scouted. This list consists of germano, banks, stauffer, ramos, adams, hensley, etc. the padres will always have a servicable number 5 skanking around somewhere who will come up and dominate for half a season. the trick is finding 3 and 4. i think we definately have them in the minors. leblanc will be a darn good number 4 i think. inman could be a number 2. latos is a wildcard. he has buckets of talent, but hasnt yet produced. for many reasons. he's 3 years away. I dont think the padres elite pitching talent will be ready till 2010, so thats why i said earlier lets look 2 years in advance to take back the division. but as for now, trade wolf and maddux. be stingy though... if we can keep maddux, do it. but if you get anything elite for either of them, go for it
RP- here, things get dicier. we have some ok relieving talent in the minors (im big on frieri... why are they making him starter all of a sudden?) at the big club... not so much. im not going to touch trevor... to much emotion all over that. we need to keep bell, because he IS our next closer. meredith... i dont know. Im a big fan of the claw, but he looks to be falling into the "good until scouted" rythym. the BP has been a real mess lately, but i think this year is the abberration, not the norm. say what you want about KT, but the man can normally build a solid pen.
ok, so thats my breakdown. a bit long winded, but what else am i gonna do sitting around houston airport for 3 hours?
in summation
-sell wolf, maddux, giles, barrett
-find CF, SS, C, maybe RP
-find speed, doesnt matter where it goes, the entire system needs speed
Eugene well thought out posst with realistic trades.
Here are my questions
Wood is a huge defensive downgrade at SS, and strikes out a lot! He is still kind of living off being BMAs #5, but has overall been a disapointment. Not opposed to dealing Young, we could get a better deal.
However, getting Gwynn in a deal for Maddux would be great if Maddux is about to retire. Maddux goes with his brother while the Padres put fans in the seats w/ Gwynn!
Someone educate me: Why isn't Luis Rodriguez a viable short-term replacement for Greene at SS? He's been tearing up Triple-A, and his lifetime numbers don't stink. Plus he got a web gem the other night on Baseball Tonight. Slick.
Why not give him a chance to start everyday for the rest of the year and then re-assess the position after the season?
thaceo -
I feel that Wood could play a league average SS. He also brings power to a lineup that is lacking it. You could probably also get a lower level prospect back with Wood and Morales, maybe a pitcher.
I also said that this team would be competitive in 2010. You'd be able to put Wood and Morales in the field and let them play for a full season. I think that's what they need at this point to fulfull their potential.
Eugene
P.S. for other baseball thoughts, my blog is in my profile.
Eugene-
I just feel that San Diego should optimize defense at the pitchers park they play in, make it even harder for teams to score..
what do you think of my Burrell idea?
He is a FA, had a great walk rate, drives in runs, and has drawn so much hate from Philly fans, im sure he wants to leave. Add Burrell to your plans, keep Giles and Adrian and then deal Kouz and Young to the Angels for a package of Nick Adenhart(up-and-coming stud who has struggled a bit in the majors), Reggie Willits can play all 3 OF positions,extends pitch counts,just having an off year,Brandon Wood, and Yung-Il-Jung(going along w/ or international development theme), we are getting somewhere.
Then you have this
C Bard/Hundley/Carlin
1B Gonzalez
2B Gonzalez/Aybar/Wood
SS Aybar/Wood
3B Headley/Wood
LF Burrell/Wilits/Gerut/Harriston
CF Gerut/Wilits/Gwynn
RF Giles/Gwynn/Gerut/Willits
I think that is a better lineup..
same pitching as you proposed with Adenhart subbed for Horne
Thaceo,
I'm on board with the idea of bringing in Pat Burrell to play LF and shifting Headley back to 3B, assuming we can find a adequate return for Kouzmanoff. We're not in the position to be giving away a bat like Kouz's. Burrell has taken so much heat in Philly over the years, it's easy to forget he has been a remarkably consistent run producer,and his raw power will play in Petco.
However, there is no way the Angels will part with Adenhart AND Wood (let alone Willits and Jung), even with the inclusion of Chris Young in the deal. Stoneman has been notorious for refusing to deal his prospects, and he remains an integral part of that front office as consultant and trusted advisor to Tony Reagins. I know Willits name has been on Padre fans wish lists for awhile, but frankly I don't see him as an everyday player on a contending club. He would have value as a 4th/5th OF and pinch-runner/defensive replacement, however.
In case Paul is listening, I'd like to suggest Toronto's Joe Inglett for a utility role next season (or even this season). Not a game-changer, but he can play anywhere on the diamond and has had success during stints with Cleveland in '06 and Toronto this year. Solid defensively in the infield and outfield, decent speed, and a tough out at the plate, drawing walks and striking out infrequently. As a follower of the Padres, it would be nice to cut down the amount of windmills on the roster. Inglett may get caught in a numbers crunch when Aaron Hill comes off the DL, even though he is outperforming guys like Eckstein, Scutaro and McDonald (and the rest of the team, in fact, based on OPS). Not a headline-grabber, but an opportunity to upgrade the club.
A couple days late in reading this post, but...
Sell. With a team that is nearly 20 games under .500 and their Pythag agreeing with that record, I find it hard to justify buying. I understand the division is possibly winnable at .500, but I think selling at this point would provide a greater window of competitiveness in the future, especially with some of the kids you guys have in the system (and especially if you are as confident in this year's draft as the staff apparently is, based off your shared thoughts here).
Furthermore, I can't see the current construction improving dramatically next year (i.e. Khalil doesn't seem to be the answer, even if it pains me to say that as a Clemson grad who watched him there...love Giles, but he's getting older...holes in CF and C). So standing pat doesn't make sense to me. The only way to go is forward and not in circles, so sell.
hey mike,
hopefully paul will comment soon, but I am enjoying keeping the conversation going. I do not feel the Young deal is essential, but was basically saying it would be worth doing if Adenhart came back. You are right, the Angels probobly have not lost faith in Wood
However, Wilits could be a great steal. When starting, he was top 5 in the league in pitches per PA and had an .OBP that was close to .400. The Angels also never use him. Could be a temporary replacement for Giles, but I see him as a 4th OF who can start.
Aaron Hill is a great option if available. Good OBP guy who is a defensive upgrade from Edgar, who is a notoriously bad defender.
I agree with your comment on Kouz, but with the amount of contenders who need a 3B, im sure we can get ample value.
Anyone have ideas on a Kouz trade? How about Kouz for Aybar and Willits? Gives us a SS and RF making Giles and Greene tradeable?
Also would love to hear more opinions on Burrell, he is a perfect fit behind Adrian in my opinion..
Hold Steady. Not only a great band, but also a great plan.
You have a lot of expiring contract money coming back to payroll in the next two years and can add appropriately once you've had a chance to eyeball the in-house talent at the MLB level.
Before we enter in to the trading season we have to look at what Pet Co Park has taught us and what this team needs.
PCP helps athletic and agile teams flourish. The faster your team is the more ground you’re going to cover in PCP spacious outfield.
With that being said you can make a mediocre pitcher look above average with a solid defense behind him due to PCP size. Balls tend to stay inside the park more times than not.
With Giles, Clark, Maddux and Hoffman at the back end of their careers you need to look at getting some value for them and moving on.
#1 - See if you can get some value for Giles. I don't know how many .290+ avg .400 obs years he has in front of him. 9,000,000 is a lot to pay next year, maybe some team will pick up his trade cash 3,000,00.
#2 - Take a hard look at center field. I believe center field is the most critical position in Pet Co Park. I really like SD chances of picking up Coco Crisp.. but at what cost.. Maybe give up Hairston and a prospect.. Only if you can sign Crisp long term. Willie Tavares would be another option.
#3 - You need to convince Maddux that he needs to finish his career with a team who is playoff bound. For his own legacy, so he might consider lifting is full no trade clause. You can definitely pick up value for him.
#4 - Try to trade or release Paul McAnulty – Too slow, not a good enough hitter.
#5 - Look for a solid professional catcher with a cannon. Jeff Clement would be nice!
By all means, sell.
Paul, I think your comment -
"we've played well below our expectations, and 2) we were a timely hit away yesterday"
Sums up what every team thats out of the playoff picture right now is saying. Don't get me wrong, I think ever team comes into the season with high expectations and hopes, but for me, this team is actually suffering from the law of averages. If anything I'd say they over achieved the past few years. Nothing wrong with that and perhaps my perception is off because they have had great pitching.
But timely hitting was a key as well as huge production out of role players like Robert Fick, Josh Bard (him and Piazza in '06 where amazing) and Damion Jackson in '05 to name a few.
To me, this season is a regression to the norm. You can't always get super production from part time players. Kahlil? How did he get so many pitches to hit last year with such a horrible OBP (.291 in Kahlil's "career year")?
If anything, the success of the past few years has postponed the inevitable... it's time to rebuild around pitching, defense (I'm looking at you Bard & Barrett as well as whoever is playing CF), and offense at key positions with a focus on not making so many outs (Kahlil!).
I like that you guys add veterans at low long term costs in the offseason (Piazza, Maddux), keep doing that. It keeps things interesting and gives us something to trade. But please, start following teams like Florida and pillage the prospects of other teams!
I wanna play GM!
Seems to me that the Padres have plenty of teams out there that they match up with in a trade.
Here is a short list -
MIL - Needs middle relief, has excess OF (Tony Gwynn Jr, Gamel, etc.). Pads could move a guy like Bell and maybe bring up Meredith (provided he's not needed to start should they move Maddux or Wolf). Meredith was great in relief a few years back.
TEX - Has way too many Catchers (Laird, Salty, Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden), Padres desperately need a catcher. They've had good luck dealing with Texas in the past.
NYM - Need an OF-SP-RP, have the money to pay (maybe they could swallow the 9 mil Giles would cost if he were traded). I'm sure they'd love Maddux or Wolf. Their farm system isn't that deep after the Santana deal.
MIN - Have a bunch of young arms. Maybe you can deal them Kouz and move Headley back to 3b. If you could get a guy like Slowey, Baker or Mulvey. Minny did deal Garza for D.Young which probably will work out for both clubs. Kouz would seem to be a better fit for the AL so he could DH every so often and rest his back.
CLE - I know the Pads have Antonelli and Stansberry (and E.Gonzo & Taguchi), but I'd love to see them get Barfield back from the Indians. He was comfortable here, yeah he's not a great OBP guy, but he sure was a nice fit and he can't cost too much at this point (bringing him back might help him turn things around). I also like K.Shoppach and CLE has VMart as their starting C. Just a thought.
COL - I know, I know, teams don't trade within the division. But Colorado has I.Stewart, Jeff Baker, and neither has a place to play (unless they deal Holiday of course). They're also looking to deal Torrealba. I'm just saying...
BAL - Bring back R.Hernandez! He can hit, he can catch, he was a good fit while he was here and the pitchers really liked him. Maybe BAL will pick up his salary (Sandy will love that). They've got Matt Weiters as their C for the future. Get Ramon and some young players from them! I hear they're looking for a SS (maybe even one with a horrible OBP!). Need a SS? How about D.Eckstein or talk to Col again about Barmes
CHIA - They're making a playoff push and could use some pitching and depth to push them over the top. K.Williams is a man who likes to gamble, they have depth in the OF and I really like J.Fields (maybe we have two 3b in the OF, one in left, one in right). Not the greatest fit, but a lot here I like.
LAA - Free Reggie Willits!!!! LAA has a ton of OF... Pads need a CF. (maybe even get J.Rivera as well). Willits had an OBP above .400, he can run and he'd be a great fit in Petco and the Pads NEED a better leadoff man than Hairston. Paul, if you can swing a deal for Willits I will personally drive up to the OC, pick him up and drive him back down here. We need this man.
Man I'm bored.
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