Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Poll Results

A few weeks ago there was a comment asking me to elaborate on the poll results rather than simply take them down. With that in mind I posted the poll asking you to predict how many games we would win this season, and based on the tenor of the off-season I wasn't necessarily expecting a feel-good outcome. That's ok - that's why this blog exists.

First of all, for those of you who voted that we would win 65 or fewer games - I've contacted Google for the list of your ip addresses, and you're all banned from the blog. :-)

Of course, I’m kidding. Fortunately, a similar portion of you expect us to be in contention for the division title this season. Which brings me to the main point: making preseason predictions is an imprecise exercise. There is so much right now that we don’t know – injuries, performance, even roster composition – that will greatly impact the final standings.

For example, using their PECOTA system, Baseball Prospectus predicted that we would win 78 games in 2006. We won 88. In 2007 the system predicted 86 wins. We won 89. In 2008 the system predicted 78 wins. We won 63. Furthermore, recent World Series teams like the '08 Phillies, '08 Rays, '07 Rockies, and '06 Tigers weren't even supposed to make the playoffs! Here’s the thing: Baseball Prospectus, and particularly PECOTA, is about as good as it gets. They are VERY good at what they do. The problem is simply a massive amount of uncertainty. That may be the problem, but that’s also the fun.

Imagine a season in which everything is perfectly predictable, and I can imagine something that isn’t worth following.

On the other hand, imagine a season with a lot of unknowns – young players, new faces, unproven talent – and you have the real MLB season. Those unknowns create the great stories, the disappointments, and the achievements…the good stuff.

So, I won’t blame any of you for being pessimistic, but just remember that nothing is preordained. As for those of you who voted that we would win 95 or more games, I want you to identify yourselves. Optimism is a great characteristic.

8 comments:

sdsuaztec4 said...

If we chose 95 or higher is there an open job in the front office??

field39 said...

Optomisim is one thing, but if anyone is predicting a winning season, they are posting from a river in Egypt. Once you get past Peavy and Young, there is very little pitching and without pitching, nothing else matters.

On another subject. Is Antonelli hurt?

The "WHTNEP" San Diego Sports Fan Collective said...

Optimism= the 43% who cast a vote somewhere between 71 and 80 wins.

Let's do our best to ruin the Dodgers' season and hopefully along the way we'll see some development in our younger players, a solid amateur draft, and a July trade that gives optimism for the future.

dscot399 said...

It is great to see that you actually read your comments. I do have a question for you though, would it be possible for your to give your readers a bio. From a fan's perspective most of us think we could do your job easily. We are ignorant on what it took for you to get there, and the amount of stress that comes with being the man/GM. It would also be great if you could provide some advice on getting into the business for GM-wannabes.

BooUrns said...

I chose 71-75, which seems pretty reasonable to me, with or without Jake Peavy.

Your point is completely valid though. Remember 2007 when Arizona won the division despite having a negative run differential?

On paper that year, the Padres and Rockies were the two best teams in the NL West and both should have been in the playoffs, but things turned out in a crazy way and unfortunately for the Pads, that meant no playoffs.

The Diamondbacks SHOULD have been a sub .500 team, but they won 90 games. Same thing with the Giants in 1997. I guess you just never know

So far the team is just as good as the Dodgers, the favorite in the divsion ;)

elgordo36 said...

Paul,

It was a pleasure meeting you today at the Palomar Colege baseball game.Thank you for your courtesy. I really appreciate you taking your time to engage in a conversation with me. It was really nice talking to you. Hopefully, I will have the privilige to see again at another game.

sincerely,

Israel Lopez

VegasPadFan said...

It was me! I'm sorry, but the pessimism pendulum has swung way too far this year. It just shows how sheepish most sports fans are. I'm not saying Walter Silva is going win a Cy Young this year but he looked good, as did Correia, as well as the bullpen so far. I'm just saying that with everybody expecting this team to fail, all they have to do is play ball and win more of these 1 run games than they lose. I believe that they can. Look, I am a fan. But I am just as excited for this team to prove everybody wrong as I was last year or the year before that. I like our offense better than last year, we are way better off a Catcher and Second. If Kooz and Headley can get that OBP up... I'm just saying, can we wait until July before we feel sorry for ourselves? Go Pads! Beat LA!

Itay said...

Paul,

how does front office deal with such fun dissapointmrnt? Does it see other asspects other than decrease in ticket and marchendise sales? What actions can it take (short and long term)?