We have a little more than a day remaining before the non-waiver trading deadline, and the last 24 hours are always wild.
At this point in the process every team has talked to each other at least once if not multiple times. Teams are following up on potential matches and busy doing all of the background work required to exchange names. We do all of this work with full knowledge that 95% of the deals we work on will never happen.
What makes the last 24 hours an emotional rollercoaster is that virtually every team has multiple balls in the air, and many times one deal is contingent about another deal (or even a couple of other deals) coming to fruition. Teams' interests or needs can change within the hour, so we can go from being incredibly excited, to distraught, to working vigorously on another deal all within about 20 minutes.
We also don't have the luxury of time. Over the winter and even up until today, deals take time to come together and everybody goes about their due diligence in a controlled manner. For the next 24 hours speed is critical, so every front office needs to be prepared in advance and our scouts need to be on-call in order to act quickly on an opportunity. Despite having numerous conversations with clubs throughout the weeks leading to the deadline, there will often be a new idea or a new proposal sometime in the final hours that requires prior preparation to beat the clock.
As for the Padres, we continue to work on multiple fronts. The odds of making a deal are what they are, but you never know what opportunity may present itself in the next 24 hours. I can't wait for another rollercoaster ride.
I always wonder if the approaching deadline favors "sellers" or "buyers". I naturally assume the sellers are favored because the buyers that are looking ahead to October know this is their last chance to get significant help (sans players that would clear waivers in August) and have a greater incentive to get a deal done, even if that means giving up more than they originally wanted to. Then again, if a team wants to sell a particular player knowing that it's their free agency year and they won't get compensation, perhaps there is a lot of incentive to sell just to ensure you get SOMETHING rather than nothing and thus sell at a lower price.
I guess it's a case by case basis though, anyways, good luck with sleep over the next 24 HRs!
P.S. I still think my favorite deadline deal story was Randy Johnson being traded to Houston in 1998, because I heard the paperwork on that deal got processed seconds from the deadline, or something to that regard. Plus it was a great trade for both sides as Johnson pitched Houston into the playoffs (I think he went 10-1 or something like that in 11 starts) and SEA got Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen
Thanks so much for the insights Paul. I'm not even a Padres fan (Angels) but I really enjoy the behind the scenes perspective that you provide.
Keep up the great work!
Responding to what Alex said, I remember that trade deadline deal that the Astros and Mariners did. It would have been the Padres and Mariners, but the Padres didn't want to move Ruben Rivera. HAHA! Regardless, 1998 was the best baseball season to remember in San Diego.
Without knowing a whole lot about baseball contracts and waivers and whatnot, I am curious about whether Greg Maddox's no-trade clause makes it more or less likely that he will slip through waivers in a post-deadline deal. Seems to me like most teams would not put in a claim because they know he will reject any trade to their club. Or is it the opposite effect, where other clubs know he will not accept the trade, so they put in a claim just to prevent anyone else from getting him?
Aside from Maddux and Wolf, it doesn't seem like the Padres will be big into the trading "frenzy" of the deadline.
It was being reported that Maddux declined a trade to the Phillies. Is that an accurate report?
Love reading the blog and your insight.
I see no reason to keep Maddux, dump him for some Class A kid. He's either going to retire or he'll resign(if we place the offer for the type B compensation) and neither of those scenario's are good for the Padres.
Please don't ask for Andy LaRoche in return for Maddux.
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Regarding Maddux, there is no way that the Padres offer him arbitration for 2009 because he would accept it, just like he accepted it from Atlanta in the winter of 2002.
I am dissapointed in the way this has been managed. The Padres gave him the two innings needed (he pitched 198 and needed 200) to guarantee the contract he is enjoying this season. By limiting himself publicly to contending west coast teams (Dodgers basically) he has all but killed any leverage the Padres had in dealing him. I understand that living here is a privilege, but with 2 months remaining in the season, 1 month would be spent on the road anyway... Why not accept a trade to a contender? both parties have been very classy to this point, why not do what is best for the Padres in the long run Mr Maddux?
so will the padres actually try to make a significant move of will it be once again another disappointingly trade deadline? this year has been horrible at least you guys could do is give us some hope for next year
I'm curious what sort of interest you have seen in Kellen Kulbacki. I see he is absolutely destroying the California league. Are there plans for him in the Padres future? I know this seems to be a little off topic for this post, but I wasn't sure where else to ask this question. I was a huge fan of him in the draft last season (he was my favorite player, in fact). The guy obviously has an incredible approach to the plate, and his power seems to be coming around. Any thoughts?
Hey Paul, do you think you could go into detail about some of the behind the scenes aspects of getting a trade done? For example, if it's just a straight-forward "hey we like Player A. We're willing to send you Player B or Player C." or do you have to play coy about getting Player A? Do you ever say something like "oh the Marlins have an offer on the table for Player A but we really like your guy but if you don't want to make the deal now then we're going with their offer" even if it's a non-existent offer from the Marlins?
if we dont sign dykstra do we get some kind of pick next year? and where would it be? supplemental 1st round of the same slot?
I know there is no relation to the subject but wondering about the organization not comitted to speed, then is logic that you have to bring the fences in right?, by the way I wouldn´t like that, but if that´s the direction we are taking, I have no probem, I just hate to see other teams to use Petco on the offensive side to their advantage. If we are gonna pick power and OBP, would be nice to have a ballpark for that kind of game
I remember the Cust deal last year was done via email. How are most deals started and finally finished and what makes them official? Thanks.
One last time please move giles!
1. The guy doesn't deserve this punishment.
2. We are going into a window of rebuilding and he's not getting any younger.
IF we were to keep him and the FO actually believes we can bounce back next year, feel free to go after someone at the deadline to improve the team for next year. At least give us some hope!
If we don't sign Dykstra, we get the pick +1 in next years draft. Dykstra was the #23 selection, so we would get the #24 pick as compensation for not signing him.
Now that the deadline is over, where there any interesting trades that were brought to the padres in the last hour before the deadline?
Re: Possible Dykstra Comp Pick
Important to note that if the Pads pick up the #23-B pick next year they would HAVE to sign that draftee or lose the pick forever. Comp picks are a one-shot deal, so they'd better draft someone who will sign (and hopefully has four working limbs).
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